ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoT Holds at 1%; BI Nominee Eyes Rupiah
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,501.67 | -0.37% |
| KLCI | 1,736.33 | -0.01% |
| STI | 5,735.68 | +0.97% |
| USD/IDR | 17,712.00 | -0.01% |
| USD/THB | 32.78 | +0.34% |
| USD/MYR | 4.02 | -0.41% |
| USD/PHP | 61.62 | -0.06% |
| USD/SGD | 1.27 | +0.12% |
| Brent Crude | 86.56 | -2.28% |
| Gold | 4,647.80 | +0.21% |
| Bitcoin | 78,812.74 | +0.32% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Indonesia Industrial Production YoY | Type: macro_line | YoY %: 5.345 (2026-05-01) | Range: -3.835–19.33 | Trend(5pt): 4.657,7.529,3.206,5.914,5.345
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.75 | 5 | 02:30 |
| Trade Balance | -450m | - | 00:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.88 | - | 00:00 |
- Bank of Thailand kept policy rate at 1% for third straight meeting amid weak uneven growth.
- Indonesia central bank nominee Destry Damayanti pledged rupiah defense alongside pro-growth stance.
- Regional equities mixed with STI up 0.97% while JCI fell 0.37% on thin volume.
Yesterday's Recap
Thailand’s central bank held its key rate at 1% as expected, citing persistently weak and uneven economic recovery despite modest tourism rebound. The decision leaves BoT among the most cautious in ASEAN as growth lags peers. Indonesia’s rupiah slipped to 17,712 against the dollar ahead of US data releases, with investors monitoring capital flow signals.
Equity markets closed mixed: Singapore’s STI rose 0.97% to 5,735.68 while Indonesia’s JCI declined 0.37% to 6,501.67. Malaysia’s KLCI edged down 0.01% and the Philippines peso firmed slightly. Brent crude fell 2.28% to 86.56, easing imported inflation pressures across the region.
No major data prints emerged from Indonesia, Malaysia or Vietnam. USD/THB rose 0.34% to 32.78 while USD/MYR fell 0.41% to 4.02, reflecting divergent capital flows. Gold edged up 0.21% to 4,647.80 as a hedge amid regional currency volatility.
The Day Ahead
Philippines central bank meets today with markets pricing in a potential 25bp hike to 5% amid sticky inflation. Indonesia will release August trade balance and September inflation figures on 1 September, key for BI policy calibration. Vietnam industrial production and retail sales data are due shortly, expected to underscore its manufacturing momentum.
Singapore’s MAS will next review its NEER band in October, with no immediate adjustment anticipated. Thailand’s weak growth backdrop keeps BoT on hold through year-end. Regional FX volatility may rise on US PCE prints and any Fed signals.
USD/IDR held near 17,712 while Brent’s drop to 86.56 supports net energy importers.
Other Economic Notes
Vietnam continues to capture supply-chain shifts with electronics exports surging and GDP growth forecasts reaching 11% for 2027. Indonesia’s palm-oil and nickel shipments remain robust, supporting external balances despite rupiah pressure. Malaysia’s semiconductor exports posted solid gains, reinforcing its role in global tech chains.
Remittance inflows to the Philippines stayed resilient, cushioning consumption even as inflation cooled. <i>↓ p.2</i>
