ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BI Holds, Rupiah Firms as BoT Stays Put
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,518.12 | -0.06% |
| KLCI | 1,725.88 | -0.91% |
| STI | 5,699.93 | +0.28% |
| USD/IDR | 17,698.00 | -0.29% |
| USD/THB | 33.13 | +0.82% |
| USD/MYR | 4.02 | -0.21% |
| USD/PHP | 62.28 | +0.66% |
| USD/SGD | 1.27 | +0.31% |
| Brent Crude | 88.10 | -1.78% |
| Gold | 4,529.90 | -1.73% |
| Bitcoin | 78,657.84 | +1.06% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Brent Crude 3M | Type: market_hloc | USD per barrel: 88.1 (2026-08-28) | Range: 71.57–100.7 | Trend(6pt): 94.98,77.08,84.95,79.45,87.84,88.1
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -450m | -600m | 00:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.88 | 3.13 | 00:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 6.20 | - | 21:00 |
- Bank Indonesia holds rates steady with rupiah pressure easing
- Thailand's BoT keeps policy rate at 1% amid baht weakness
- Indonesia inflation and trade balance due early next week
Yesterday's Recap
Indonesian markets showed resilience as the rupiah strengthened 0.29% to 17,698 per dollar despite global caution. Bank Indonesia's decision to hold rates supported the currency, with JCI closing down just 0.06% at 6,518.12. Thailand's baht weakened 0.82% to 33.13 per dollar after the Bank of Thailand unanimously kept its policy rate at 1%.
The SET index reflected regional caution on external signals. Malaysia's KLCI fell 0.91% to 1,725.88 while Singapore's STI rose 0.28% to 5,699.93. USD/MYR eased 0.21% and USD/PHP rose 0.66%.
Indonesia's 25 banks continued favoring securities holdings over lending, highlighting subdued credit demand. News also flagged risks from a widening current account deficit that could pressure the rupiah if export proceeds soften.
The Day Ahead
Indonesia releases August trade balance and inflation data on September 1, with consensus pointing to a wider deficit of USD 600 million and CPI rising to 3.13% year-over-year. Markets will watch for any impact on rupiah flows and current account trends. Philippines inflation for August prints on September 3, following July's 6.2% reading.
Regional investors remain focused on US rate signals ahead of potential capital flow shifts. No major releases are scheduled for Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore or Vietnam in the immediate session. New rules requiring natural resource export forex to be placed domestically should help support reserves and limit volatility in the weeks ahead.
Other Economic Notes
Indonesia's rising current account deficit risks adding pressure on the rupiah if export proceeds weaken further. New regulations requiring natural resource export forex to be placed domestically aim to bolster reserves and reduce volatility. Thailand's baht controls appear effective in limiting speculative flows, with scope for tighter measures if needed.
Broader ASEAN FDI trends continue to benefit from China-plus supply chain diversification, particularly into Vietnam and Indonesia manufacturing hubs. Malaysia's BNM is viewed on a steady policy path by DBS, supporting expectations that the OPR will remain unchanged at the next meeting.
