ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BI, BoT Hold; Rupiah Strengthens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,518.12 | -0.06% |
| KLCI | 1,725.88 | -0.91% |
| STI | 5,699.93 | +0.28% |
| USD/IDR | 17,741.00 | -0.05% |
| USD/THB | 33.12 | +0.79% |
| USD/MYR | 4.02 | -0.21% |
| USD/PHP | 62.34 | +0.76% |
| USD/SGD | 1.27 | +0.02% |
| Brent Crude | 88.53 | -0.87% |
| Gold | 4,497.30 | +0.43% |
| Bitcoin | 78,960.01 | +1.45% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Indonesia Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 5.88 (2026-06-01) | Range: 2.79–6.3 | Trend(6pt): 2.79,4.5,5.81,5.84,4.76,5.88
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -450m | -300m | 00:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.88 | 3.13 | 00:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 6.20 | 6 | 21:00 |
- Bank Indonesia and Bank of Thailand kept policy rates unchanged amid stable external conditions.
- Indonesian Rupiah firmed while regional equities posted mixed closes on thin volumes.
- Indonesia inflation and trade balance releases due tomorrow, with Philippines inflation following later.
Yesterday's Recap
Bank Indonesia held its benchmark rate steady as rupiah pressure eased, according to WSJ reporting, with the committee citing balanced inflation risks and adequate reserves. MAS and Bank Indonesia launched a rupiah-SGD settlement framework to reduce transaction costs and support bilateral trade flows. The rupiah gained ground against the dollar despite global caution, closing near 17,741 per USD.
In Thailand, the Bank of Thailand unanimously kept its policy rate at 1 percent while noting the July trade account returned to balance. Malaysia’s ringgit remained supported ahead of the next BNM decision, with international reserves at US$132.07 billion at end-July. Equity markets closed mixed: JCI slipped 0.06 percent to 6,518.12, KLCI fell 0.91 percent to 1,725.88, and STI rose 0.28 percent to 5,699.93.
Brent crude declined 0.87 percent to 88.53 while gold advanced 0.43 percent. Indonesia 10Y and Thailand 10Y yields were not reported.
The Day Ahead
Indonesia’s August trade balance and year-over-year inflation rate are scheduled for release tomorrow, with consensus pointing to a narrower deficit of US$300 million and inflation rising to 3.13 percent from 2.88 percent. Market participants will watch whether the hotter print alters expectations for BI’s next move. Philippines September inflation data follows on 3 September, with consensus at 6.0 percent after 6.2 percent previously.
No major releases are due from Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore or Vietnam. Regional FX desks will monitor USD/THB near 33.12 and any follow-through from the new rupiah-SGD settlement framework. USD/IDR at 17,741 and USD/MYR at 4.02 remain focal points for carry trades.
Other Economic Notes
Indonesia’s banking sector continues to favor securities holdings over lending, with 25 banks showing this tilt according to BI data, potentially capping credit growth. Thailand’s baht faces pressure near 33 per dollar as markets await US nonfarm payrolls and geopolitical signals. Malaysia’s electrical and electronics exports have benefited from ongoing US-China supply-chain diversification, supporting the ringgit outlook.
Vietnam’s FDI registrations remain on track for another strong year, reinforcing its position as a key manufacturing alternative. Broader ASEAN capital-flow management stays focused on reserve adequacy rather than new restrictions. USD/SGD at 1.27 and USD/PHP at 62.34 reflect modest regional divergences.
