ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BI Governor Shift Adds to Rupiah Pressure
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,599.94 | +1.14% |
| KLCI | 1,700.54 | -2.36% |
| STI | 5,710.37 | -0.78% |
| USD/IDR | 17,765.00 | +0.42% |
| USD/THB | 33.17 | +0.14% |
| USD/MYR | 4.04 | +0.38% |
| USD/PHP | 62.53 | +0.37% |
| USD/SGD | 1.27 | -0.02% |
| Brent Crude | 95.23 | +0.61% |
| Gold | 4,434.30 | +1.98% |
| Bitcoin | 77,109.74 | -0.38% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -450m | -300m | 130m |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.88 | 3.13 | 3.19 |
Indonesia Trade Balance | Type: macro_line | USD mn: 2.566e+10 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.647e+10–2.566e+10 | Trend(5pt): 1.684e+10,1.883e+10,1.972e+10,2.096e+10,2.566e+10 | Exports USD mn: 2.557e+10 (2026-06-01) | Range: 2.078e+10–2.667e+10 | Trend(5pt): 2.164e+10,2.327e+10,2.078e+10,2.246e+10,2.557e+10
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 6.20 | 6 | 21:00 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.90 | - | 21:00 |
- Indonesia posts $130M trade surplus, beating forecasts, while CPI rises to 3.19%
- Rupiah weakens 0.42% to 17,765 amid new BI leadership and higher oil prices
- Regional equities mixed as JCI gains 1.14% while KLCI falls 2.36%
Yesterday's Recap
Indonesia reported a trade surplus of $130 million in August, reversing the consensus forecast for a $300 million deficit and improving from the prior $450 million shortfall. Year-over-year inflation edged up to 3.19%, slightly above the 3.13% consensus. The JCI index rose 1.14% to 6,599.94 on commodity support, while Malaysia’s KLCI dropped 2.36% to 1,700.54 and Singapore’s STI fell 0.78% to 5,710.37.
The rupiah weakened 0.42% to 17,765 against the dollar as Brent crude climbed 0.61% to $95.23 per barrel, adding import pressure. Gold rose 1.98% to $4,434.30. Parliament confirmed Destry Damayanti as the new Bank Indonesia governor with a mandate to prioritize stability during the leadership transition.
Other ASEAN currencies posted smaller declines, with the ringgit and peso each weakening around 0.37-0.38%.
The Day Ahead
Philippines inflation data for August is scheduled for release on September 3 and is expected to show cooling to 6.0% year-over-year. No major releases are listed for Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore or Vietnam on September 2. Market participants will monitor follow-through flows after the Indonesian central bank leadership change.
Regional equity and FX trading volumes may remain light ahead of the Philippine print. MAS is expected to maintain its current NEER policy band without adjustment.
Other Economic Notes
Higher global oil prices are widening Indonesia’s current-account vulnerability despite the improved trade print. Malaysia’s bond market lagged regional peers in August amid supply concerns and expectations of further rate hikes elsewhere. Thailand continues to target higher-value industries to achieve high-income status, though near-term growth remains tied to tourism and electronics exports.
Vietnam’s role in US-China supply-chain shifts is supported by sustained electronics shipments, while the Philippines faces risks from negative real interest rates. Capital-flow management across ASEAN remains focused on reserve adequacy amid external volatility.
Global Macro News
The US dollar strengthened on renewed bets for Federal Reserve rate hikes, weighing on emerging-market currencies including the rupiah. <i>↓ p.2</i>
