ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
ID Inflation Tops View, BNM Holds OPR
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,595.78 | -0.06% |
| KLCI | 1,708.74 | +0.48% |
| STI | 5,744.11 | +0.59% |
| USD/IDR | 17,684.00 | -0.07% |
| USD/THB | 32.90 | -1.13% |
| USD/MYR | 4.04 | -0.04% |
| USD/PHP | 62.54 | +0.27% |
| USD/SGD | 1.27 | -0.47% |
| Brent Crude | 95.82 | +0.20% |
| Gold | 4,520.30 | +3.53% |
| Bitcoin | 81,461.27 | +5.38% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.88 | 3.13 | 3.19 |
| Trade Balance | -450m | -300m | 130m |
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
Indonesia Trade Balance | Type: macro_line | Trade Balance USD mn: 2.557e+10 (2026-06-01) | Range: 2.078e+10–2.667e+10 | Trend(5pt): 2.164e+10,2.327e+10,2.078e+10,2.246e+10,2.557e+10
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 6.20 | 6 | 17:00 |
- Indonesia August inflation rose to 3.19% y/y, beating consensus of 3.13%.
- Malaysia’s central bank held the overnight policy rate at 2.75%.
- Regional equities closed mixed while most ASEAN currencies firmed against the USD.
Yesterday's Recap
Indonesia’s August inflation printed at 3.19% y/y, exceeding the 3.13% consensus and prior 2.88% reading, while the trade balance swung to a USD 130 million surplus against expectations of a USD 300 million deficit. The stronger print was driven by commodity exports even as higher oil prices weighed on the rupiah outlook. Malaysia’s Bank Negara Malaysia kept the overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75%.
Equity markets reflected the mixed data tone: Jakarta’s JCI slipped 0.06% to 6,595.78, Kuala Lumpur’s KLCI rose 0.48% to 1,708.74, and Singapore’s STI gained 0.59% to 5,744.11. Currencies showed modest USD weakness, with USD/IDR easing 0.07% to 17,684, USD/THB falling 1.13% to 32.90, and USD/SGD declining 0.47% to 1.27. Indonesia and Singapore activated a bilateral rupiah-SGD settlement framework involving 12 banks to streamline trade payments.
Kasikornbank opened its Indonesian subsidiary targeting 40 trillion rupiah in new lending, underscoring continued cross-border banking expansion. Indonesia’s new central bank governor Destry Damayanti was sworn in, bringing continuity to BI’s inflation-targeting and rupiah-defense mandate.
The Day Ahead
Philippines August inflation data, expected at 6.0% y/y, will be released at 17:00 ET and will set the tone for BSP policy deliberations. No major data releases or central bank meetings are scheduled across the remaining ASEAN economies tomorrow. Market focus will stay on external drivers including oil prices and any signals from the Federal Reserve.
Regional equity and FX desks will monitor follow-through from yesterday’s trade surplus and rate-hold outcomes. Capital-flow desks will watch USD/IDR and USD/MYR for signs of sustained foreign interest after the BNM decision. Thailand’s Bank of Thailand is rolling out a sector-wide framework to combat digital fraud, addressing rising cyber risks in the financial system.
The World Bank urged broader AI adoption in Thailand to lift productivity and support the shift toward higher-value industries needed for high-income status.
Other Economic Notes
Thailand’s finance minister reiterated calls for deeper ASEAN economic integration to capture supply-chain relocation flows. Indonesia’s new central bank governor Destry Damayanti was sworn in, bringing continuity to BI’s inflation-targeting and rupiah-defense mandate. <i>↓ p.2</i>
