ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Rupiah, Ringgit Diverge Ahead of BI, BNM Decisions
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 5,096.83 | +0.79% |
| KLCI | 1,619.51 | +0.24% |
| STI | 5,303.83 | -1.36% |
| USD/IDR | 18,148.00 | +0.19% |
| USD/THB | 33.76 | +0.18% |
| USD/MYR | 4.07 | +0.48% |
| USD/PHP | 63.49 | -0.12% |
| USD/SGD | 1.28 | +0.25% |
| Brent Crude | 104.42 | -0.33% |
| Gold | 3,940.20 | -0.74% |
| Bitcoin | 77,730.00 | +1.37% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Philippines Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | BSP policy rate (%): 5.5 (2026-10-23) | Range: 2–6.5 | Trend(5pt): 2,6,6.5,5,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-11-04) | |||
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 7.20 | - | 20:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 5.29 | - | 23:00 |
- Indonesian rupiah weakens past 18,100/USD as mixed data and fiscal concerns offset a $3.36bn September trade surplus; BI prioritises FX stability ahead of its 18 November meeting.
- Malaysian ringgit firms ahead of Bank Negara's OPR decision, with markets pricing "normalisation" even as BNM's policy rate sits at 2.75%.
- Singapore's STI drops 1.36% as bank shares drag; regional equities mixed, with JCI up 0.79% despite MSCI-related anxiety.
Yesterday's Recap
Indonesia dominated the ASEAN tape, with Bank Indonesia confirming a $3.36bn trade surplus for September and framing it as a buffer for external stability, even as the rupiah weakened on mixed economic figures and persistent fiscal and external risk concerns. USD/IDR pushed to 18,148 (+0.19%), extending its grind higher, while Jakarta's JCI defied the currency softness with a 0.79% gain to 5,096.83. MSCI's warning on Indonesian market accessibility continued to generate pushback from officials and commentators, though it weighed on sentiment and equity flows.
In Malaysia, the ringgit opened higher on expectations of policy normalisation ahead of BNM's decision, with USD/MYR at 4.07 (+0.48% on the day). Singapore was the regional laggard, the STI falling 1.36% to 5,303.83 as bank stocks dragged the index lower. Thailand's baht was steady-to-softer at 33.76/USD (+0.18%), with Bangkok's cabinet approving a steep excise tax hike on fully imported EVs to 35% from 10% effective January — a structural shift for its autos hub.
The Philippine peso was the outlier, firming 0.12% to 63.49/USD even as local commentary debated consumption culture's role in the currency's weakness.
The Day Ahead
The calendar pivots to two tier-one ASEAN prints on Wednesday 4 November: Philippine inflation for October (previous 7.2% y/y) at 20:00 ET and Indonesian Q3 GDP growth (previous 5.29% y/y) at 23:00 ET. The Philippine CPI print is the more market-sensitive of the two, given the peso's recent weakness and the central bank's inflation-fighting posture; a downside surprise would ease pressure on the BSP. Indonesia's GDP release will be scrutinised for domestic demand resilience amid a softer rupiah and tighter fiscal rhetoric, with President Prabowo's recent economy meeting flagging inflation control and budget savings.
Malaysia's BNM decision remains the week's key regional event, with the ringgit already trading on normalisation expectations. Singapore and Thailand have no top-tier data scheduled, leaving FX and equity flows to drive sentiment.
