ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Rupiah Slides 3.4% as Regional Equities Diverge
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 5,050.43 | +0.40% |
| KLCI | 1,616.58 | -1.18% |
| STI | 5,179.17 | -2.21% |
| USD/IDR | 18,070.00 | +3.38% |
| USD/THB | 33.41 | -0.07% |
| USD/MYR | 4.06 | +0.28% |
| USD/PHP | 63.06 | +0.50% |
| USD/SGD | 1.28 | -0.07% |
| Brent Crude | 92.17 | -6.26% |
| Gold | 4,149.50 | +1.83% |
| Bitcoin | 74,915.17 | +0.44% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI/IHSG) | Type: macro_line | Jakarta Composite Index (JCI/IHSG): -39.42 (2026-11-06) | Range: -40.73–29.84 | Trend(6pt): 22.34,1.896,4.946,3.692,-39.53,-39.42
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- USD/IDR jumped 3.38% to 18,070, the sharpest single-day move among ASEAN currencies, even as Brent crude collapsed 6.26% to $92.17.
- Singapore's STI fell 2.21% and Malaysia's KLCI dropped 1.18%, while Jakarta's JCI bucked the trend with a 0.40% gain.
- Bank Indonesia's next policy meeting on 18 November looms large, with the rupiah's slide likely to dominate the agenda ahead of the decision.
Yesterday's Recap
Indonesian markets delivered the region's most striking divergence on 8 November, with the JCI eking out a 0.40% gain to 5,050.43 while the rupiah cratered 3.38% to 18,070 per dollar — an unusually large one-day depreciation for a currency that typically moves in fractions of a percent. The move came despite Brent crude tumbling 6.26% to $92.17, a development that should ordinarily support the rupiah given Indonesia's status as a net energy importer. Malaysian equities softened, with the KLCI shedding 1.18% to 1,616.58, though the ringgit firmed modestly after Bank Negara Malaysia's decision to hold the Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75%, with USD/MYR at 4.06.
Singapore bore the region's sharpest equity losses, the STI falling 2.21% to 5,179.17, a move consistent with the city-state's high beta to global risk sentiment; the Singapore dollar was essentially flat at 1.28. Thailand's baht held steady at 33.41, and the Philippine peso weakened 0.50% to 63.06. Gold's 1.83% rally to $4,149.50 alongside the rupiah's slide suggests a broad risk-off undertone rather than an Indonesia-specific story alone.
The Day Ahead
The calendar is light for 9 November, with no scheduled ASEAN statistical releases, leaving markets to digest the prior session's FX volatility. Attention turns to Bank Indonesia's 18 November policy meeting, now less than two weeks out, where the rupiah's recent weakness will be central to the deliberation. Thailand's next central bank meeting is not until 23 December, so baht traders will focus on oil-price pass-through into the kingdom's fuel-heavy inflation basket.
Malaysia's economists are already positioning for a potential BNM tightening cycle, with several forecasting a move to 3.0% in the first quarter of 2027. Singapore's MAS, which sets policy via the Singapore dollar NEER band rather than interest rates, will be watching the STI's sharp drawdown for signs of broader regional contagion.
Other Economic Notes
Indonesia's economy grew 5.47% on the year, according to reporting on the latest national accounts, yet anecdotal evidence of household strain persists — a disconnect worth monitoring as consumption forms the backbone of domestic demand. Thailand's October inflation rose to 3.9% on surging fuel prices, a print that sits well above the IMF's 2.53% August reading and complicates the BoT's accommodative stance. ↓ p.2
