Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BCCh Holds as Colombia's Gas Crunch Hits
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 38.61 | -0.03% |
| MSCI Peru | 85.50 | -0.21% |
| USD/COP | 3,216.28 | +0.11% |
| USD/CLP | 948.45 | +0.70% |
| USD/PEN | 3.40 | +1.89% |
| Copper | 6.40 | +1.23% |
| Gold | 4,105.20 | +0.92% |
| Brent Crude | 89.25 | -7.78% |
| Bitcoin | 65,195.66 | -0.22% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Chile Short-term Rate | 4.50% | +0.00% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Chile Short-Term Rate | Type: macro_line | Short-term rate %: 4.5 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.75–11.25 | Trend(5pt): 0.75,11.17,8.98,5,4.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.50 | 4.50 | 14:00 |
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 12 | 12.50 | 10:00 |
| Tuesday (2026-07-28) | |||
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.50 | 4.50 | 14:00 |
- Chile central bank set to hold rate at 4.5% amid soft industrial data
- Colombia braces for LNG rationing forcing remote work for schools and firms
- PEN leads Andean FX selloff, rising 1.89% while copper gains 1.23%
Yesterday's Recap
Andean equity markets closed mixed with MSCI Colombia flat at 9.02, MSCI Chile down 0.03% at 38.61 and MSCI Peru off 0.21% at 85.50. USD/COP rose 0.11% to 3,216.28 while USD/CLP climbed 0.70% to 948.45 and USD/PEN surged 1.89% to 3.40. Copper advanced 1.23% to 6.40 and gold added 0.92% to 4,105.20, but Brent crude plunged 7.78% to 89.25.
Colombia’s government directed schools and businesses to operate remotely next week after the SPEC port shutdown triggered LNG rationing. Chile’s short-term rate stayed at 4.50% with no movement. No major data releases occurred across the bloc on 26 July.
The Day Ahead
Chile’s central bank meets today with consensus pointing to a hold at 4.5%, matching the prior print and reflecting softer June industrial production. Colombia’s BanRep decision follows on 31 July where markets price a 50 bp hike to 12.5%. Peru releases Q2 GDP flash and trade balance on 29 July after June’s 3.4% growth beat.
Copper and gold price swings will dominate sentiment for Chile and Peru fiscal flows. LNG supply constraints in Colombia may widen further if port issues persist. Regional FX depreciation risks importing inflation, especially in Colombia where inflation remains stickiest.
Other Economic Notes
Colombia’s natural gas shortfall threatens near-term industrial output and raises fiscal pressure ahead of the new CAF financing package. Copper’s rebound supports Chile’s royalty collections but sustained Brent weakness hurts Colombia’s oil-linked revenues. Peru’s mining surplus remains resilient with gold and copper output steady.
Lithium spot prices in Chile eased, capping upside to SQM-related fiscal inflows. Regional FX depreciation risks importing inflation, especially in Colombia where inflation remains stickiest. Colombia’s new $9 billion CAF offer provides a buffer for fiscal needs amid the gas crunch.
Global Macro News
The ECB holds its deposit rate at 2.25% while Eurozone CPI stands at 2.80% and unemployment at 6.20%, signaling a cautious global easing path that supports commodity demand. Weaker Brent prices reduce external pressure on Andean importers yet weigh on Colombia’s terms of trade. Stronger copper and gold prices bolster Chile and Peru current accounts relative to regional peers.
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