Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Peru to Hold Rates as Copper Climbs, PEN Weakens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 40.87 | -0.92% |
| MSCI Peru | 90.70 | -0.04% |
| USD/COP | 3,137.98 | -0.57% |
| USD/CLP | 916.37 | +0.42% |
| USD/PEN | 3.38 | +2.14% |
| Copper | 6.68 | +1.23% |
| Gold | 4,449.10 | +2.00% |
| Brent Crude | 87.21 | -0.58% |
| Bitcoin | 64,280.91 | +0.58% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Chile Short-term Rate | 4.50% | +0.00% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Chile Short-Term Rate | Type: macro_line | Short-Term Rate %: 4.5 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.5–11.25 | Trend(5pt): 1.5,11.25,8.25,5,4.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.25 | 4.25 | 15:00 |
- Peru's central bank set to hold rates at 4.25% on August 13 amid stable inflation outlook.
- MSCI Chile fell 0.92% while copper rose 1.23% to $6.68/lb, supporting Chile and Peru fiscal positions.
- USD/PEN jumped 2.14% to 3.38 as USD/COP eased 0.57% to 3,137.98 on limited local drivers.
Yesterday's Recap
Andean equity markets posted modest losses on August 10 with no major data releases across Colombia, Chile or Peru. MSCI Chile declined 0.92% to 40.87 while MSCI Peru slipped 0.04% to 90.70 and MSCI Colombia held flat at 9.02. Copper advanced 1.23% to $6.68/lb, lifting export revenues for Chile and Peru, while gold rose 2.00% to $4,449.10/oz.
Brent crude fell 0.58% to $87.21/bbl, offering limited relief to Colombia's fiscal balance. USD/CLP rose 0.42% to 916.37 and USD/PEN surged 2.14% to 3.38, widening divergences in regional FX performance. Chile's short-term rate remained at 4.50% with no change in policy stance signaled.
Broader commodity strength, including Bitcoin's 0.58% gain to 64,280.91, provided a supportive external backdrop despite uneven equity moves.
The Day Ahead
Markets await Peru's BCRP interest rate decision on August 13, with consensus pointing to a hold at 4.25%. The committee is expected to maintain its stable policy path given contained inflation and steady external accounts. Chile will release August copper production figures from Cochilco on August 12, providing an early read on mining output after recent price gains.
Colombia has no high-impact releases scheduled, leaving focus on external flows and oil price movements. Regional FX volatility may persist ahead of the Peru announcement, particularly in the PEN. MSCI Colombia at 9.02 and USD/COP at 3,137.98 suggest limited immediate domestic catalysts.
Other Economic Notes
Elevated copper prices continue to bolster Chile and Peru fiscal balances through higher royalty collections and tax receipts. Chile's structural balance rule captures a significant share of windfall gains while Peru's current account surplus widens on stronger export volumes. Colombia's oil sector remains sensitive to Brent moves, with each $5/bbl shift altering the fiscal deficit by roughly 0.2% of GDP.
Lithium price weakness trims Chile's revenue expectations, highlighting diversification challenges in the mining sector. Broader commodity strength supports external positions across the Andean bloc despite uneven equity performance. Gold's 2.00% advance to $4,449.10/oz adds further tailwinds for regional reserves.
