Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Quake Shatters Colombia's Austerity, Copper Rallies
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 40.32 | +0.70% |
| MSCI Peru | 88.69 | +0.69% |
| USD/COP | 3,133.52 | +0.31% |
| USD/CLP | 914.45 | +0.04% |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | +1.69% |
| Copper | 6.70 | +1.45% |
| Gold | 4,458.40 | +1.78% |
| Brent Crude | 89.12 | +0.68% |
| Bitcoin | 63,591.77 | +1.23% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Chile Short-term Rate | 4.50% | +0.00% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Chile Short-Term Rate | Type: macro_line | %: 4.5 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.5–11.25 | Trend(5pt): 1.5,11.25,8.25,5,4.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Colombia earthquake disrupts fiscal austerity and prompts tariff relief request from US
- Chile and Peru equity indices advance on copper and gold price gains
- Andean FX shows modest USD strength, with PEN leading depreciation
Yesterday's Recap
Colombia faced immediate fiscal strain after a deadly earthquake shattered President Abelardo de la Espriella’s austerity plans just before market open, with the $10 billion reconstruction bill now threatening budget targets. Local corporate bond sales showed signs of recovery following the market-friendly election outcome, though sovereign spreads remained under pressure. Chile’s MSCI index rose 0.70 percent to 40.32 as copper climbed 1.45 percent to 6.70, while Peru’s MSCI gained 0.69 percent to 88.69 amid gold’s 1.78 percent advance to 4,458.40.
USD/PEN jumped 1.69 percent to 3.36, USD/COP rose 0.31 percent to 3,133.52, and USD/CLP edged 0.04 percent higher to 914.45. Peru’s economy unexpectedly slowed in June as fishing and agriculture output slumped under unusual weather, narrowing the trade surplus despite mining export gains. Chile’s short-term rate held at 4.50 percent with no change signaled.
No economic events were recorded in the Andean region on August 16.
The Day Ahead
No major data releases are scheduled across the Andean region for August 18, leaving markets to track commodity price action and any follow-up statements on Colombia’s reconstruction financing. Copper and gold movements will remain central for Chile and Peru fiscal and external accounts, while Colombia monitors US tariff policy responses after the presidential appeal. Traders will also watch for any central bank commentary on reserve management amid recent FX volatility, particularly in Peru where PEN weakness accelerated.
Regional equity flows are expected to stay light absent fresh catalysts, with attention turning to global risk sentiment and its spillover to Andean spreads.
Other Economic Notes
Copper’s sustained rally above 6.70 supports Chile’s fiscal revenue outlook, with each 10-cent gain adding roughly 180-200 million dollars annually and improving the current account by 0.3-0.4 percent of GDP. Peru’s mining exports continued to expand, helping offset the June growth slowdown, while gold strength provides informal support to Colombia’s external balance. Lithium prices in Chile stabilized near 12,800 dollars per ton with no new royalty signals from producers.
Broader commodity strength, including Brent at 89.12, offers limited direct relief to Colombia given its oil exposure but reinforces regional terms of trade. Political risk in Colombia remains elevated after the earthquake, potentially widening spreads if reconstruction spending overruns initial estimates.
