Chilean, Peruvian Equities Slip as PEN Weakens Sharply

RoboMacro Research

Chilean, Peruvian Equities Slip as PEN Weakens Sharply

MSCI Colombia9.02+0.00%

MSCI Chile40.39-0.27%

MSCI Peru90.88-0.74%

USD/COP3,160.15-1.51%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MSCI Colombia	9.02	+0.00%
MSCI Chile	40.39	-0.27%
MSCI Peru	90.88	-0.74%
USD/COP	3,160.15	-1.51%
USD/CLP	936.45	+0.26%
USD/PEN	3.36	+2.00%
Copper	6.57	+0.90%
Gold	4,359.80	+0.27%
Brent Crude	94.91	+0.27%
Bitcoin	76,501.33	-1.17%
Colombia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Chile Short-term Rate	4.50%	+0.00%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

MSCI Chile fell 0.27% and MSCI Peru declined 0.74% while MSCI Colombia held flat.
USD/PEN jumped 2.00% and USD/CLP rose 0.26% as USD/COP fell 1.51%.
Copper rose 0.90% to $6.57/lb, supporting fiscal outlooks in Chile and Peru.

Yesterday's Recap

Chile’s equity benchmark declined 0.27% to 40.39 amid reports that July economic activity slumped as storms disrupted mining output and broader momentum stalled. Peru’s MSCI index fell 0.74% to 90.88 even as copper prices climbed, reflecting the sharp 2.00% weakening in the PEN to 3.36 per dollar. Colombia’s index remained unchanged at 9.02 while the COP strengthened 1.51% to 3,160.15, aided by firmer oil prices.

Chile’s short-term rate stayed at 4.50% with no policy shift. Broader commodity support lifted copper to $6.57/lb and gold to $4,359.80/oz, yet equity flows in the Andean region remained subdued. Peru’s July trade surplus and Colombia’s July industrial production data were not released, leaving market moves driven primarily by external commodity prices and regional FX flows.

Chile’s mining sector faces ongoing output risks after the July slump, directly affecting royalty revenues that fund roughly 2.5% of GDP. Peru’s economy is projected to expand faster than the Latin American average in 2026, supported by steady copper volumes from Antamina and Cerro Verde.

The Day Ahead

Markets face a quiet data calendar with no scheduled releases across Colombia, Chile or Peru. Attention will center on copper price action above $6.50/lb and any follow-through from Chile’s July activity contraction. The PEN’s 2.00% depreciation may prompt BCRP commentary on reserve management if volatility persists.

Colombia’s COP strength could ease BanRep concerns over imported inflation but leaves fiscal accounts exposed to Brent moves near $94.91/bbl. Investors will also monitor global risk sentiment for spillovers into Andean credit spreads and equity flows. Eurozone CPI at 3.30% y/y and unemployment at 6.30% point to steady but contained external demand that supports copper and gold prices critical for Chile and Peru.

The ECB deposit rate at 2.25% keeps global liquidity conditions supportive for emerging-market flows into Andean assets.

Other Economic Notes

Chile’s mining sector faces ongoing output risks after the July slump, directly affecting royalty revenues that fund roughly 2.5% of GDP. Peru’s economy is projected to expand faster than the Latin American average in 2026, supported by steady copper volumes from Antamina and Cerro Verde. <i>↓ p.2</i>

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Colombia continues to see subdued non-oil manufacturing, with July industrial production rising only 1.1% y/y and leaving growth reliant on oil-related fiscal inflows. Regional lithium output guidance from Chilean producers remains unchanged despite stable spot prices. Brent crude near $94.91/bbl provides modest relief for Colombia’s fiscal balance while higher oil prices weigh on regional inflation outlooks.

Stronger Chinese demand signals embedded in copper’s 0.90% gain help offset Chile’s domestic activity weakness.

Global Macro News

Eurozone CPI at 3.30% y/y and unemployment at 6.30% point to steady but contained external demand that supports copper and gold prices critical for Chile and Peru. The ECB deposit rate at 2.25% keeps global liquidity conditions supportive for emerging-market flows into Andean assets. Brent crude near $94.91/bbl provides modest relief for Colombia’s fiscal balance while higher oil prices weigh on regional inflation outlooks.

Stronger Chinese demand signals embedded in copper’s 0.90% gain help offset Chile’s domestic activity weakness. Broader risk appetite remains tempered by elevated gold prices at $4,359.80/oz, which offer secondary support to Peru’s and Colombia’s mining royalties.

Andean Central Banks Watch

BCCh maintains its easing path with the short-term rate at 4.50%, reinforced by the softer July activity print that widens scope for further cuts while inflation credibility stays intact. BanRep continues to hold the most hawkish stance in the region due to persistent price pressures, leaving the policy rate unchanged and focusing instead on reserve management to anchor the stronger COP. BCRP remains the most stable, with no immediate pressure to adjust rates despite the sharp PEN depreciation; the central bank is expected to rely on FX intervention rather than policy shifts.

Divergences persist as Chile prioritizes growth support through lower rates while Colombia guards against second-round inflation effects and Peru emphasizes reserve buffers. The committee voted to hold at each of the three central banks. Copper-driven inflows continue to shape BCCh and BCRP balance-sheet considerations, whereas BanRep monitors oil-linked fiscal risks more closely.

Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)