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Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

October 05, 2026 robomacro.com

Andean Equities Advance on Copper Gains

MSCI Colombia9.02+0.00%
MSCI Chile37.10+0.84%
MSCI Peru89.56+0.91%
USD/COP3,263.30-1.66%

Market Snapshot

AssetLevelChange
MSCI Colombia9.02+0.00%
MSCI Chile37.10+0.84%
MSCI Peru89.56+0.91%
USD/COP3,263.30-1.66%
USD/CLP988.85+0.78%
USD/PEN3.45+2.97%
Copper6.61+1.79%
Gold4,188.20+0.62%
Brent Crude102.75+0.49%
Bitcoin86,008.65-0.55%
Colombia 10Y Govt Yield--
Peru 10Y Govt Yield--

Prior Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Actual
No events available
Chile Short-term Policy RateChile Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Short-term rate %: 4.5 (2026-07-01) | Range: 2.75–11.25 | Trend(5pt): 2.75,11.25,7.24,5,4.5

Today's Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Time
No events available
  • MSCI Chile rose 0.84% and MSCI Peru gained 0.91% as copper climbed 1.79% to 6.61
  • COP strengthened 1.66% while CLP and PEN weakened against the USD
  • Brent crude and gold posted modest gains supporting Colombia and mining exports

Yesterday's Recap

No economic data releases occurred across Colombia, Chile or Peru on October 4. Equity markets showed resilience with MSCI Chile advancing 0.84% to 37.10 and MSCI Peru rising 0.91% to 89.56 while MSCI Colombia stayed flat at 9.02. The Colombian peso strengthened as USD/COP fell 1.66% to 3,263.30.

In contrast USD/CLP increased 0.78% to 988.85 and USD/PEN jumped 2.97% to 3.45. Copper’s advance to 6.61 offered direct support to Chile and Peru through higher export and royalty revenues. Gold rose 0.62% to 4,188.20 and Brent crude edged up 0.49% to 102.75 providing additional lift to mining and oil-linked fiscal balances in the region.

Weak US employment data released Friday added to global growth concerns and may keep external demand for Andean commodities in focus. Brazil’s surprise August industrial output decline highlights regional slowdown risks that could spill into trade and investment flows with Chile, Colombia and Peru.

The Day Ahead

The calendar remains empty for October 5 and 6 with no CPI, GDP, trade or central-bank meetings scheduled in any of the three countries. Markets will focus on external commodity flows and any follow-through from yesterday’s copper and oil price gains. Chile and Peru remain most sensitive to further moves in copper while Colombia tracks Brent for fiscal and current-account effects.

FX volatility could persist given the divergent moves in COP versus CLP and PEN. Investors will also monitor any political or fiscal signals from Brazil that might influence regional risk sentiment. Fiscal uncertainties ahead of Brazil’s elections may keep volatility elevated across Latin American currencies and sovereign spreads.

Higher copper and oil prices continue to improve external accounts for Chile, Peru and Colombia respectively though sustained gains are required to ease FX pressure meaningfully.

Other Economic Notes

Lithium policy developments in Chile remain an important medium-term theme for investment and fiscal revenues. Weak US employment data released Friday added to global growth concerns and may keep external demand for Andean commodities in focus. Brazil’s surprise August industrial output decline highlights regional slowdown risks that could spill into trade and investment flows with Chile, Colombia and Peru.

↓ p.2

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Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

October 05, 2026 robomacro.com
MSCI Chile Equity (ECH) MSCI Chile Equity (ECH) | Type: market_hloc | Price: 37.1 (2026-10-02) | Range: 36.79–42.27 | Trend(5pt): 39.66,39.08,40.7,39.48,37.1
Copper Futures (HG=F) Copper Futures (HG=F) | Type: market_hloc | Price USD/lb: 6.608 (2026-10-05) | Range: 6.055–6.804 | Trend(5pt): 6.178,6.322,6.488,6.47,6.608
MSCI Peru Equity (EPU) MSCI Peru Equity (EPU) | Type: market_hloc | Price: 89.56 (2026-10-02) | Range: 82.42–94.97 | Trend(5pt): 85.28,84.84,89.99,90.72,89.56
USD/COP Exchange Rate USD/COP Exchange Rate | Type: market_hloc | USD per COP: 3263 (2026-10-05) | Range: 3044–3369 | Trend(6pt): 3345,3204,3106,3110,3319,3263

Other Economic Notes (continued)

Fiscal uncertainties ahead of Brazil’s elections may keep volatility elevated across Latin American currencies and sovereign spreads. Higher copper and oil prices continue to improve external accounts for Chile, Peru and Colombia respectively though sustained gains are required to ease FX pressure meaningfully.

Global Macro News

The US economy added only 29,000 jobs in September underscoring softening labor demand and potential implications for global risk appetite. Eurozone CPI stood at 3.80% year-over-year as of September 30 while the ECB deposit rate held at 2.50% and unemployment reached 6.40% in August. These readings suggest contained but persistent inflation pressures that could limit aggressive easing by major central banks.

Brazil’s industrial contraction adds to evidence of cooling activity across Latin America and may weigh on regional export demand. Philippine rate-hike expectations and peso movements offer limited direct read-through but illustrate broader emerging-market sensitivity to US policy divergence. Overall the global backdrop favors commodity exporters when prices rise yet leaves Andean currencies exposed to shifts in external risk sentiment.

Andean Central Banks Watch

BanRep maintains the most hawkish stance in the region given persistent inflation pressures while BCCh has delivered the most aggressive cuts and BCRP continues to prioritize stability. No policy meetings or forward guidance updates were released yesterday leaving rate paths unchanged. ↓ p.3

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Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

October 05, 2026 robomacro.com

Continuation

Andean Central Banks Watch (continued)

Colombia’s higher policy rate relative to Chile reflects divergent inflation trajectories and supports the recent strength in COP. Chile’s faster easing cycle aligns with its larger exposure to copper price volatility and the need to support domestic demand. Peru’s measured approach has kept PEN moves more contained despite the sharp daily USD/PEN increase.

Reserve management and FX intervention remain tools of last resort across the three central banks with no fresh activity reported. Divergences in rate paths are expected to persist until inflation convergence becomes clearer in Colombia and Chile.

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