Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Colombia Holds at 12.25%; Chile Cuts Frozen by Oil Shock
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 34.73 | -2.20% |
| MSCI Peru | 80.18 | -4.24% |
| USD/COP | 3,228.50 | +1.70% |
| USD/CLP | 988.62 | +0.08% |
| USD/PEN | 3.47 | +0.29% |
| Copper | 6.53 | +1.03% |
| Gold | 3,911.40 | +0.32% |
| Brent Crude | 108.40 | -7.85% |
| Bitcoin | 77,745.54 | -0.64% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Peru 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Fiscal Balance (Central Govt) | Type: macro_line | Fiscal Balance (Central Govt): -2.46 (2030-01-01) | Range: -6.165–-2.46 | Trend(5pt): -6.165,-4.728,-3.269,-2.836,-2.46
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- BanRep held its policy rate at 12.25% on October 30 as economic cooling offsets persistent inflation; Vice President Restrepo warns of default risk absent a fiscal adjustment bill.
- Chile's rate-cut cycle is frozen by the oil shock, with BCCh at 4.50% since December 2025; Chilean investors are rotating into inflation-linked notes as Brent volatility persists.
- Andean equities sold off sharply — MSCI Peru -4.24%, MSCI Chile -2.20% — while USD/COP jumped 1.70% to 3,228.50 on fiscal concerns.
Yesterday's Recap
Colombia dominated the Andean tape as BanRep held its policy rate at 12.25% at the October 30 decision, pausing a hiking cycle that had pushed borrowing costs to among the highest in the region. The central bank's hold reflects a cooling economy that has begun to offset inflation concerns, with Colombia CPI YoY at 6.29% as of September 30. The peso bore the brunt of fiscal anxiety, with USD/COP surging 1.70% to 3,228.50 after Vice President José Manuel Restrepo told Semana that Colombia risks default if Congress fails to approve a fiscal adjustment bill.
Colombian equities were flat, with MSCI Colombia unchanged at 9.02. In Chile, MSCI Chile fell 2.20% to 34.73 as the oil shock continues to freeze the rate-cut cycle and stall the economy, while USD/CLP edged up 0.08% to 988.62. Peru fared worst, with MSCI Peru tumbling 4.24% to 80.18 despite copper's 1.03% gain to 6.53 and USD/PEN rising 0.29% to 3.47.
The Day Ahead
The Andean calendar is empty for Monday, November 2, with no scheduled data releases across Colombia, Chile, or Peru. Attention shifts to the BCRP's November 12 meeting, the next scheduled policy decision, where the board will weigh Peru CPI YoY of 4.06% against a stable sol and copper-sector dynamics. Chile's next BCCh meeting is December 15, leaving markets to parse commentary on how the oil shock is transmitting into inflation expectations.
Colombia's next BanRep meeting is December 18, and the fiscal adjustment bill's progress through Congress will be the dominant swing factor for COP and sovereign spreads in the interim. Traders will also watch copper and Brent pricing for directional cues given the outsized moves in regional equities.
Other Economic Notes
Colombia's fiscal trajectory is the bloc's most acute vulnerability, with the default warning from Restrepo elevating the stakes around the fiscal adjustment bill. Chile's copper output is expected to stage only a modest recovery next year after a historic slump, leaving production well below recent levels as aging mines constrain supply — a structural headwind for fiscal revenues. Peru's upgraded free-trade agreement with China took effect Sunday, expanding rules covering e-commerce, global supply chains, and competition, deepening ties with its largest export market.
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