Colombia FX Jumps, Chile Stocks Gain on Oil

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Colombia FX Jumps, Chile Stocks Gain on Oil

MSCI Colombia9.02+0.00%

MSCI Chile35.46+2.10%

MSCI Peru81.26+1.35%

USD/COP3,228.50+5.90%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MSCI Colombia	9.02	+0.00%
MSCI Chile	35.46	+2.10%
MSCI Peru	81.26	+1.35%
USD/COP	3,228.50	+5.90%
USD/CLP	977.95	-1.46%
USD/PEN	3.46	+3.33%
Copper	6.37	-2.69%
Gold	3,917.40	-1.31%
Brent Crude	106.26	+1.42%
Bitcoin	77,081.98	+0.53%
Colombia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Peru 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

USD/COP surges 5.90% to 3,228.50 as Colombia absorbs a deadly bomb attack near a military base in the west
Chile outperforms with MSCI Chile +2.10% and CLP firming 1.46% to 977.95 despite copper sliding 2.69%
Peru equities gain 1.35% while PEN weakens 3.33% to 3.46; Brent crude climbs 1.42% to $106.26 on Iran war escalation

Yesterday's Recap

Colombian assets dominated the session for the wrong reasons, with USD/COP spiking 5.90% to 3,228.50 — the sharpest single-day peso depreciation in recent memory — after a bomb attack in western Colombia killed four people, including a baby, apparently targeting a military base. MSCI Colombia was unchanged at 9.02, suggesting the equity reaction lagged the FX move. Chile was the clear outperformer: MSCI Chile rose 2.10% to 35.46 and the peso strengthened 1.46% to 977.95, even as copper fell 2.69% to $6.37/lb — a divergence worth watching.

Peru posted a solid session, with MSCI Peru up 1.35% to 81.26, though the sol weakened 3.33% to 3.46. Regional political color was mixed: Lula's win in Brazil and Milei's economic struggles in Argentina framed a broader LatAm risk backdrop. Gold slipped 1.31% to $3,917.40, while Brent crude rose 1.42% to $106.26 as the Iran conflict dragged into its ninth month.

The Day Ahead

The Andean calendar is empty for today, leaving markets to digest yesterday's violent FX moves and the Colombia security shock. Attention turns to the BCRP, which meets on November 12 — the next scheduled Andean central bank decision — with the policy rate expected to be discussed against Peru's 4.55% CPI print. Chile's next BCCh meeting is December 15, and Colombia's BanRep convenes December 18, so the near-term focus is positioning rather than event risk.

Traders will watch whether the COP retraces or extends its 5.90% slide, and whether Chile's equity rally holds if copper continues to weaken. Peru's sol bears watching after its 3.33% depreciation, though the BCRP's track record of stability argues against disorderly moves.

Other Economic Notes

The Chile bond market is rotating into inflation-linked notes as investors hedge against oil-driven price pressure from the Iran war, per Bloomberg — a signal that Chilean inflation expectations are re-anchoring higher even as the BCCh holds at 4.50%. Copper's 2.69% decline is a direct headwind for Chile and Peru fiscal revenues, though Chile's equity market shrugged it off yesterday. Colombia's fiscal picture remains the bloc's weakest link, with the peso's 5.90% plunge amplifying imported inflation pressure against a 6.29% CPI backdrop.

Peru's 4.55% inflation and stable institutional framework keep it the bloc's relative anchor, but the sol's 3.33% drop merits monitoring. ↓ p.2

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Bolivia's 9.23% CPI remains the regional outlier, though it sits outside the core Andean bloc.

Global Macro News

Oil is the dominant global variable for the Andeans, with Brent at $106.26 and the Iran war now in its ninth month — a persistent terms-of-trade positive for Colombia's crude exports but a cost-push headache for Chile and Peru importers. Gold's 1.31% pullback to $3,917.40 removes a tailwind for Peru's mining sector. Copper at $6.37/lb, down 2.69%, is the key swing factor for Chilean and Peruvian export revenue and fiscal balances.

The broader LatAm political backdrop — Lula's Brazil win and Milei's Argentine economic strain — shapes regional risk appetite and capital flows into Andean markets. US consumer stress, flagged by Bloomberg despite stable growth and low unemployment, could temper demand for Andean exports. Bitcoin's modest 0.53% gain to $77,081.98 suggests risk appetite is selective rather than broad.

Congo's copper and cobalt export probe adds supply-side uncertainty to the metals complex relevant to Chile and Peru.

Andean Central Banks Watch

BanRep holds at 12.25%, the bloc's most hawkish stance, with the rate set at the September 30 decision and reaffirmed at the October 30 hold; Colombia's 6.29% CPI justifies the caution, and the peso's 5.90% slide only reinforces the case against easing. ↓ p.3

Continuation

Andean Central Banks Watch (continued)

The BCCh sits at 4.50%, unchanged since December 17, 2025, and held again at its October 27 decision — Chile has been the region's most aggressive cutter historically, but with CPI at 4.08% and oil-driven inflation-linked demand rising, the cutting cycle appears paused ahead of the December 15 meeting. The BCRP holds at 4.25%, unchanged at its October 7 decision, with Peru's 4.55% CPI and a November 12 meeting keeping policy on hold; Peru remains the bloc's most stable central bank, though the sol's 3.33% depreciation bears watching for FX intervention risk. The divergence is stark: Colombia at 12.25% versus Chile at 4.50% and Peru at 4.25%, a 775bp spread that reflects Colombia's persistent inflation problem and Chile's earlier easing bias.

The committee voted to hold at each of the three central banks; no vote splits were disclosed in available data. Reserve management across all three remains conservative, with the BCRP's FX stability track record the strongest of the group.

Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)