Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Andean FX Slides, Chile Hike Bets Build
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 35.40 | -3.25% |
| MSCI Peru | 80.14 | -3.12% |
| USD/COP | 3,237.90 | +0.33% |
| USD/CLP | 980.00 | +1.56% |
| USD/PEN | 3.44 | +2.83% |
| Copper | 6.25 | +0.03% |
| Gold | 4,074.90 | -0.94% |
| Brent Crude | 98.54 | +0.25% |
| Bitcoin | 75,990.52 | +0.06% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Peru 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Chile Money-Market Rate | Type: macro_line | Chile interbank rate (%): 4.5 (2026-08-01) | Range: 3.33–11.25 | Trend(5pt): 3.33,11.25,6.56,5,4.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Chile's central bank minutes have pulled forward market bets on a rate hike, with USD/CLP jumping 1.56% to 980.00.
- Peru's sol weakened sharply, USD/PEN up 2.83% to 3.44, while MSCI Peru fell 3.12% and MSCI Chile dropped 3.25%.
- Colombia was the outlier, with MSCI Colombia flat and USD/COP up only 0.33% to 3,237.90.
Yesterday's Recap
The Andean bloc traded with a clear risk-off tilt on November 5, led by Chile and Peru. USD/CLP rose 1.56% to 980.00 and MSCI Chile fell 3.25% to 35.40, with markets bringing forward bets on a Chilean rate hike after the BCCh minutes. Peru fared worse on the FX side, with USD/PEN surging 2.83% to 3.44 and MSCI Peru down 3.12% to 80.14, a notable divergence given the sol's usual stability.
Colombia was comparatively insulated: MSCI Colombia held at 9.02 and USD/COP edged up just 0.33% to 3,237.90. Commodity backing was mixed, with copper essentially flat at 6.25 (+0.03%) and Brent up 0.25% to 98.54, while gold slipped 0.94% to 4,074.90. No Andean calendar releases printed on the day, leaving price action to drive the narrative.
The Day Ahead
The Andean calendar is empty for November 6, so attention shifts to positioning and external drivers. The main event risk sits just beyond the horizon: the BCRP's next policy meeting on November 12, where the board will weigh Peru's 5.25% CPI against a 4.25% policy rate. Chile's next BCCh decision is not until December 15, but the minutes-driven hike speculation will keep CLP and local curves in focus.
Colombia's next BanRep meeting is December 18, leaving COP to trade on oil and risk sentiment in the interim. With no domestic prints to anchor flows, watch copper for Chile and Peru and Brent for Colombia as the marginal intraday drivers.
Other Economic Notes
The divergence in Andean inflation profiles remains the defining macro theme. Peru's CPI at 5.25% sits well above the BCRP's target range, while Chile's 4.08% and Colombia's 6.29% keep respective central banks on guard. Colombia's persistent inflation is the most entrenched of the three, underpinning BanRep's hawkish 12.25% stance.
Chile's disinflation progress is now being questioned by markets via hike bets, a sharp turn from its earlier cutting cycle. Peru's FX stress is unusual for a country with a traditionally stable sol and large reserve buffers, suggesting either external flow pressure or a positioning squeeze.
