Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Colombia Inflation Cools, Andean FX Under Pressure
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 36.48 | +2.04% |
| MSCI Peru | 82.97 | +3.18% |
| USD/COP | 3,266.82 | +4.70% |
| USD/CLP | 967.73 | +1.33% |
| USD/PEN | 3.41 | +1.78% |
| Copper | 6.31 | -0.36% |
| Gold | 4,082.60 | -0.78% |
| Brent Crude | 91.31 | -1.36% |
| Bitcoin | 74,169.58 | -1.40% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Peru 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Chile Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Chile policy rate (%): 4.5 (2026-11-03) | Range: 2.75–11.25 | Trend(5pt): 2.75,11.25,6,4.75,4.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Colombian October inflation accelerated less than forecast to 6.30%, easing pressure on BanRep to resume hikes
- Andean currencies weaken sharply against a firm dollar; USD/COP up 4.70%, USD/CLP +1.33%, USD/PEN +1.78%
- MSCI Peru and Chile rally on copper's rebound and tech-led risk appetite; Colombia equities flat
Yesterday's Recap
Colombian inflation dominated the Andean macro calendar, with October CPI accelerating less than forecast to 6.30% year-on-year, a print that eases pressure on BanRep policymakers to resume interest rate increases. The softer-than-expected outcome suggests the disinflation trajectory remains intact even as price pressures persist well above target. In FX markets, the Andean bloc came under broad pressure as a firm dollar and risk-off sentiment weighed on regional currencies: USD/COP jumped 4.70% to 3,266.82, USD/CLP rose 1.33% to 967.73, and USD/PEN climbed 1.78% to 3.41.
Equity markets diverged sharply, with MSCI Peru surging 3.18% to 82.97 and MSCI Chile gaining 2.04% to 36.48, tracking copper's rebound as global technology shares resumed their rally on data-center power demand. MSCI Colombia was flat at 9.02, lagging regional peers. Commodities were mixed: copper slipped 0.36% to 6.31, gold fell 0.78% to 4,082.60, and Brent crude dropped 1.36% to 91.31, a modest negative for Colombian fiscal revenues.
The Day Ahead
The Andean calendar is light on Tuesday, with no scheduled top-tier releases across Colombia, Chile, or Peru. Market attention shifts to the BCRP's policy decision on Thursday, November 12, which will be the week's key Andean event. Ahead of that meeting, traders will watch PEN price action for signals on positioning and any official FX commentary.
Chilean markets will take direction from copper and global risk sentiment, while Colombian assets remain sensitive to the inflation surprise's implications for the BanRep trajectory. With no domestic catalysts, Andean trading is likely to be driven by external factors, particularly US dollar dynamics and commodity prices.
Other Economic Notes
The softer Colombian inflation print reduces the odds of an imminent BanRep hike, though the 6.30% rate remains far above the central bank's target, keeping the policy stance restrictive. Peru's inflation at 5.25% year-on-year remains elevated relative to target, complicating the BCRP's calculus ahead of its November 12 meeting. Chile's inflation at 4.08% is the lowest in the bloc, supporting the BCCh's more accommodative posture.
The divergence in inflation trajectories across the three economies underpins markedly different policy paths. Meanwhile, Peru's Chancay port and the China-Peru FTA continue to bolster Latin American export flows to China, a structural tailwind for Peruvian trade.
