Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BCRP Set to Hike as Copper, Gold Fall
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 35.66 | -0.56% |
| MSCI Peru | 81.82 | +0.07% |
| USD/COP | 3,278.50 | -0.87% |
| USD/CLP | 984.18 | +0.09% |
| USD/PEN | 3.41 | +0.04% |
| Copper | 6.20 | -1.12% |
| Gold | 3,954.00 | -1.16% |
| Brent Crude | 92.29 | -0.51% |
| Bitcoin | 72,913.02 | -1.42% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Peru 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Peru EUR/PEN Exchange Rate | Type: macro_line | EUR/PEN Exchange Rate: 3.783 (2026-11-12) | Range: 3.69–4.535 | Trend(6pt): 4.523,4.075,3.924,4.038,3.733,3.783
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.25 | 4.50 | 18:00 |
- BCRP expected to lift its policy rate to 4.50% from 4.25% at today's decision, a rare tightening turn for the historically stable Andean central bank.
- COP outperforms on the session, USD/COP down 0.87% to 3,278.50, while CLP and PEN trade flat to marginally weaker.
- Copper falls 1.12% to $6.20/lb and gold drops 1.16%, pressuring Chilean and Peruvian export revenue outlooks.
Yesterday's Recap
The Andean bloc opened the week quietly on the data front, with no scheduled macro releases across Colombia, Chile, or Peru on November 11. Market action instead reflected commodity and FX cross-currents. The Colombian peso was the standout outperformer, with USD/COP falling 0.87% to 3,278.50, extending a recent run of strength that has been supported by elevated oil prices and carry appeal at BanRep's 12.25% policy rate.
The Chilean peso edged 0.09% weaker to 984.18 per dollar, while the Peruvian sol slipped 0.04% to 3.41. Equity proxies diverged: MSCI Chile fell 0.56% to 35.66, MSCI Peru added 0.07% to 81.82, and MSCI Colombia was unchanged at 9.02. Commodity benchmarks were uniformly softer — copper down 1.12% to $6.20/lb, gold off 1.16% to $3,954/oz, and Brent crude down 0.51% to $92.29/bbl — a combination that weighs most directly on Chile and Peru's mining-linked fiscal and external accounts.
Chilean transport workers blocked major highways in protest over surging fuel prices, a reminder that energy costs remain a live political and inflation risk for Santiago.
The Day Ahead
The dominant event is the BCRP's Central Bank Interest Rate Decision at 18:00 ET, with consensus calling for a 25bp hike to 4.50% from the current 4.25%. This would mark a meaningful departure from Peru's traditionally stable policy path and reflects the upward drift in Peruvian inflation, with CPI running at 5.25% year-on-year as of October 31. No other scheduled Andean releases are on the calendar for November 12, and tomorrow's slate is likewise empty, so attention will center entirely on Lima's decision and any accompanying statement language on inflation targeting credibility.
Traders will watch the sol's reaction closely given the currency's tight range and the BCRP's history of active FX intervention. Chilean and Colombian markets will likely take their cue from the BCRP outcome and overnight commodity moves.
Other Economic Notes
Chile's copper sector remains the central macro story, with Codelco reportedly eyeing private capital to shore up its balance sheet amid strained investment capacity — a structural shift for a state-owned producer long reliant on sovereign support. ↓ p.2
