MERVAL Slides as Peso Firms on Quiet Day

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	3,202,490.00	-0.67%
USD/ARS	1,487.00	-0.34%
EUR/ARS	1,699.81	-0.08%
Gold	4,133.10	+1.53%
Brent Crude	77.55	-0.60%
Soybean	1,184.50	-0.88%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

MERVAL falls 0.67% to 3,202,490 amid thin volumes
USD/ARS eases 0.34% to 1,487 as soybean inflows slow
Gold rises 1.53% while Brent and soybeans decline

Yesterday's Recap

No economic data releases occurred on July 8. MERVAL closed 0.67% lower at 3,202,490 as investors reduced exposure to banks and energy names. USD/ARS slipped 0.34% to 1,487.00, reflecting modest peso appreciation on limited spot demand.

EUR/ARS edged 0.08% lower to 1,699.81. Gold advanced 1.53% to 4,133.10 on safe-haven buying. Brent Crude dropped 0.60% to 77.55 while soybean futures fell 0.88% to 1,184.50, weighing on export revenue expectations.

Argentina 10Y bonds recorded no price movement. Thin trading volumes limited price discovery across asset classes, with participants awaiting clearer signals on external financing and commodity trends. The absence of fresh data kept focus on ongoing reserve management and fiscal execution.

The Day Ahead

No releases are scheduled for July 9. Market participants will track any informal BCRA reserve commentary. Attention stays on Treasury funding needs and IMF Article IV progress.

Commodity price swings will continue to drive local equity and FX flows. Liquidity conditions in the parallel FX market remain the key near-term focus. Traders are expected to monitor global yield movements for any spillover effects on Argentine assets.

With calendars empty, positioning is likely to stay light until external catalysts emerge.

Other Economic Notes

Peso stability supports gradual reserve rebuilding despite soft soybean prices. Fiscal consolidation efforts continue to anchor domestic bond demand. Export-tax adjustments have improved revenue visibility without triggering major market volatility.

Inflation pass-through from prior devaluation remains the dominant medium-term risk for monetary settings. Steady external disbursements have eased immediate balance-of-payments pressures, allowing policymakers room to maintain current settings. Domestic demand for inflation-linked instruments has shown resilience, supporting smoother Treasury operations.

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Global Macro News

New Zealand’s central bank raised its policy rate 25 bp to 2.50%, tightening global financial conditions for emerging markets. The IMF warned that Europe’s economy is losing momentum while inflation reaccelerates, pressuring commodity demand. US Fed minutes highlighted growing concern over persistent inflation, supporting higher-for-longer rate expectations.

South Korea’s central bank is expected to hike next week on inflation and FX pressures. Philippine growth forecasts were cut, weighing on regional risk appetite. Higher global yields could increase Argentina’s external financing costs.

Commodity currencies face headwinds from softer Chinese demand signals. These developments collectively point to a more cautious external backdrop for Latin American assets.

BCRA Watch

The BCRA has kept the policy rate unchanged in recent weeks as FX reserves stabilize. No new forward guidance has been issued since the last monetary-policy statement. Steady reserve accumulation from multilateral disbursements has reduced immediate depreciation pressure on the peso.

Markets continue to price the first rate cut for September once inflation prints moderate. The committee remains focused on rebuilding credibility through consistent FX intervention rather than aggressive easing. Policy settings continue to balance reserve objectives against lingering price pressures from earlier adjustments.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)