MERVAL Slides 3.2% as Peso Holds Steady

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	3,185,257.00	-3.22%
USD/ARS	1,475.00	-0.07%
EUR/ARS	1,686.82	-0.36%
Gold	4,001.20	+0.39%
Brent Crude	84.81	+0.69%
Soybean	1,189.75	-0.44%
Bitcoin	62,862.03	-1.45%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

MERVAL drops 3.22% to 3,185,257 on thin volumes
USD/ARS eases 0.07% to 1,475 with limited intervention
Annual inflation remains at 33.6% as of June 30

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine equity markets closed lower with the MERVAL index declining 3.22% to 3,185,257 amid subdued trading activity and no major corporate announcements. The peso traded in a narrow range, with USD/ARS ending at 1,475.00 after a 0.07% dip that reflected steady BCRA presence in the spot market. EUR/ARS fell 0.36% to 1,686.82 while soybean prices slipped 0.44% to 1,189.75, weighing on export-related sentiment.

Gold advanced 0.39% to 4,001.20 and Brent crude gained 0.69% to 84.81, providing modest support to commodity-linked assets. No economic data releases occurred on July 16, leaving market moves driven by positioning ahead of the weekend. Provincial debt spreads remained stable as investors awaited fresh fiscal signals from the Treasury.

The Day Ahead

No scheduled Argentine data releases or policy events appear on the calendar for July 17 or July 18. Traders will monitor BCRA reserve updates and any Treasury bill auctions that could influence short-term peso liquidity. Global developments such as Brazil’s rebounding growth and South Korea’s rate hike may shape external risk appetite for emerging-market assets.

Soybean export flows and any updates on IMF Article IV discussions remain key watchpoints for fiscal credibility. Market participants expect the crawling peg to stay on its current path absent fresh inflation prints.

Other Economic Notes

Argentina’s primary fiscal surplus target of 1.8% of GDP continues to anchor investor confidence in peso-denominated instruments despite limited new issuance data. Soybean export proceeds remain central to reserve accumulation, with current prices offering only marginal support to the trade balance. IMF staff engagement in Buenos Aires underscores the need for sustained consolidation beyond the headline surplus to rebuild buffers.

Provincial financing conditions have improved modestly, yet overall debt dynamics stay sensitive to real interest rates and exchange-rate stability.

Global Macro News

Brazil’s economic rebound in early 2026 has reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts there, tightening regional financial conditions that spill over to Argentine asset pricing. <i>↓ p.2</i>

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Global Macro News (continued)

The US Fed Beige Book described moderate growth alongside mixed inflation signals, keeping external dollar funding costs elevated for emerging markets. South Korea’s first rate hike since 2023 highlights a broader global shift toward tighter policy in response to persistent price pressures. Canada’s decision to hold rates steady reflects improving domestic activity but offers little direct relief for commodity exporters such as Argentina.

UK bond yields moved lower on softer growth prints, supporting a cautious risk-on tone in global fixed income that could benefit Argentine sovereign spreads. Oil prices edged higher on supply signals, providing a small tailwind to Argentina’s energy trade balance.

BCRA Watch

The BCRA maintained its policy stance through the latest reserve update, focusing on reserve accumulation and exchange-rate stability rather than outright easing. With annual inflation at 33.6% as of June 30, the central bank continues to prioritize peso demand and net FX purchases over rapid rate reductions. Forward guidance has emphasized a gradual crawl that balances competitiveness for exporters against imported inflation pass-through.

Markets price limited probability of near-term cuts given the absence of July CPI data and still-sub-30-billion reserve levels. Any acceleration in the crawl rate would likely be communicated through weekly reserve reports rather than formal statements. The committee’s approach remains data-dependent, with emphasis on fiscal flows and export receipts to anchor expectations.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)