Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Moody's Upgrade Offsets May Contraction
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,379,772.00 | +2.98% |
| USD/ARS | 1,482.25 | +0.30% |
| EUR/ARS | 1,694.20 | +0.55% |
| Gold | 4,096.80 | -1.21% |
| Brent Crude | 86.30 | -8.26% |
| Soybean | 1,239.75 | +0.55% |
| Bitcoin | 65,673.40 | -0.65% |
| Argentina 10Y | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Argentina Real Effective Exchange Rate | Type: macro_line | Index: 127 (2026-06-01) | Range: 98.97–127.8 | Trend(6pt): 113.9,113.6,104.5,110.1,122.4,127
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Economy shrank for second straight month in May
- Moody's joins Fitch and S&P in lifting Argentina rating
- MERVAL gains 2.98% while USD/ARS rises 0.30%
Yesterday's Recap
Argentina’s economy contracted for a second consecutive month in May, highlighting uneven recovery under President Javier Milei. Moody’s upgraded the sovereign credit rating, aligning all three major agencies for the first time in a decade and supporting bond and bank-stock gains. The peso held steady against the dollar.
MERVAL advanced 2.98% to 3,379,772 while USD/ARS climbed 0.30% to 1,482.25. EUR/ARS rose 0.55% to 1,694.20. Soybean futures added 0.55% to 1,239.75 on steady export demand.
Net international reserves faced pressure from seasonal energy payments amid the 33.6% YoY CPI level recorded at end-June. Brent Crude fell 8.26% to 86.30 while gold declined 1.21% to 4,096.80.
The Day Ahead
The calendar shows no major data releases scheduled for July 23. Markets will monitor peso liquidity and any Treasury bond-auction follow-up after recent inflation-linked placements. Attention remains on export-tax collections and their contribution to fiscal consolidation.
Soybean export volumes and Vaca Muerta project updates could influence sentiment. IMF programme reviews and any CAF-IDB disbursement news may also affect reserve dynamics. Traders will track global oil and gold moves for spillovers into local assets.
Overnight money-market conditions and any follow-through from the Moody’s upgrade will shape near-term flows.
Other Economic Notes
Fiscal consolidation continues as export-tax revenue rose in real terms, narrowing the primary gap. The Treasury’s recent inflation-linked bond auction drew solid demand at a 4.1% real yield. Petrochemical investment interest is rising, with Dow Argentina highlighting Vaca Muerta as a strategic feedstock source for future projects.
Soybean export proceeds remain central to reserve accumulation ahead of the harvest lull. These factors support gradual improvement in domestic peso-asset appetite despite the May output contraction. The syndicated CAF-IDB loan of $1.2 bn further bolsters external buffers.
