MERVAL Slides as Peso Weakens Further

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	3,319,522.00	-1.78%
USD/ARS	1,488.25	+0.40%
EUR/ARS	1,693.93	+0.12%
Gold	4,059.40	+0.32%
Brent Crude	91.70	-8.93%
Soybean	1,251.50	+1.13%
Bitcoin	65,079.53	+0.05%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

MERVAL falls 1.78% to 3,319,522 amid thin volumes
USD/ARS climbs 0.40% to 1,488.25 on persistent demand
Soybean futures rise 1.13%, bolstering export outlook

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine markets closed lower with the MERVAL declining 1.78% to 3,319,522 as investors reduced exposure to local equities amid thin trading volumes. The official USD/ARS rate advanced 0.40% to 1,488.25, reflecting ongoing peso depreciation pressures that prompted selective hedging. EUR/ARS edged 0.12% higher to 1,693.93 while gold gained 0.32% to 4,059.40 on safe-haven buying.

Brent crude plunged 8.93% to 91.70, easing imported energy costs for the economy and providing modest relief to fiscal accounts. No major data releases occurred yesterday, leaving soybean prices up 1.13% at 1,251.50 as the key positive driver for trade balances and reserve accumulation. Bitcoin held steady with a 0.05% gain at 65,079.53.

The absence of fresh inflation prints kept focus on reserve dynamics and fiscal flows, with the Argentina 10Y benchmark showing no quoted movement.

The Day Ahead

Markets enter a data-light session with no scheduled releases from INDEC or the BCRA according to the FinanceFlow calendar. Attention turns to any Treasury debt rollover announcements and ongoing IMF Article IV discussions in Buenos Aires. Traders will monitor soybean export registrations for signs of sustained surplus momentum that could further support external accounts.

The peso’s parallel premium remains a watchpoint given the official rate’s recent climb and persistent demand pressures. Regional central bank decisions elsewhere may influence sentiment toward emerging-market currencies including the ARS. Fiscal consolidation updates could surface through official channels without triggering immediate market moves, while global oil volatility continues to shape import cost expectations.

Other Economic Notes

Vaca Muerta continues to attract petrochemical investment interest, with Dow Argentina highlighting the shale formation’s potential to anchor long-term capital inflows into downstream projects. Primary fiscal surpluses have reduced immediate reliance on BCRA financing for debt maturities, supporting a more orderly rollover of local-currency obligations. Record soybean shipments earlier this year widened the trade surplus and supported reserve accumulation, reinforcing the external position.

Industrial output showed modest sequential gains in recent months, consistent with gradual recovery in manufacturing activity. <i>↓ p.2</i>

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

These trends reinforce the government’s emphasis on export-led external accounts over domestic demand stimulus, with the softer June CPI print further easing one-year inflation expectations.

Global Macro News

Asian equities declined as surging oil prices revived inflation concerns across import-dependent economies, pressuring bonds and equities alike. European central banks held policy rates steady amid volatile energy markets and Middle East supply risks that pushed Brent higher earlier in the week. The Turkish central bank kept its benchmark at 37%, extending its pause and signaling caution on lira stability.

Singapore’s monetary authority is expected to maintain its current stance given contained price pressures. Philippine authorities urged decisive central bank intervention after the peso hit record lows against the dollar. African central banks face similar oil-driven inflation risks that could spill into broader emerging-market funding conditions.

Danish policymakers aligned with ECB guidance, underscoring coordinated pauses in tightening cycles.

BCRA Watch

The BCRA maintains its policy rate at 38% with markets now pricing a modest 50 bp reduction by September. Reserve accumulation has provided breathing room to manage the crawling peg without abrupt adjustments. Forward guidance continues to stress inflation convergence and external balance targets ahead of the next meeting.

Recent communications have avoided explicit easing signals while highlighting the benefits of sustained primary surpluses. The committee views soybean-driven trade surpluses as supportive of reserve levels that reduce near-term intervention needs. Any widening of the official rate path will depend on incoming inflation prints and IMF program compliance.

Markets interpret the current stance as data-dependent rather than pre-committed to cuts.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)