MERVAL Climbs as Peso Weakens

RoboMacro Research

MERVAL Climbs as Peso Weakens

MERVAL3,122,065.00+1.14%

USD/ARS1,498.25+0.38%

EUR/ARS1,729.51+0.27%

Gold4,431.20+1.59%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	3,122,065.00	+1.14%
USD/ARS	1,498.25	+0.38%
EUR/ARS	1,729.51	+0.27%
Gold	4,431.20	+1.59%
Brent Crude	89.72	+2.28%
Soybean	1,180.25	+1.94%
Bitcoin	64,065.17	+0.24%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

MERVAL rises 1.14% to 3,122,065 on commodity strength
USD/ARS advances 0.38% to 1,498.25 amid thin trade
No domestic data releases scheduled through August 12

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine equities advanced as the MERVAL index closed 1.14% higher at 3,122,065, supported by gains in energy and financial names. The official USD/ARS rate increased 0.38% to 1,498.25 while the EUR/ARS pair rose 0.27% to 1,729.51. Soybean futures added 1.94% to 1,180.25 on export delays and firmer global demand.

Brent crude climbed 2.28% to 89.72, lifting related Argentine energy stocks. Gold posted a 1.59% gain to 4,431.20, reflecting safe-haven flows into the region. Bitcoin edged 0.24% higher to 64,065.17 with limited local participation.

The Argentina 10Y benchmark showed no change in the absence of fresh supply or auctions. Export tax collections have continued to exceed forecasts, helping narrow the fiscal deficit despite soybean withholding. The government secured a $1.2 bn syndicated facility from CAF and IDB to strengthen reserves ahead of the election period.

Persistent soybean exporter reluctance keeps pressure on the BCRA to maintain the dólar soja premium through September. Reserve coverage of short-term liabilities remains the central bank’s binding constraint on any policy easing.

The Day Ahead

Markets will monitor soybean export flows and any BCRA reserve updates after yesterday’s close. Traders expect continued focus on the trade surplus trajectory and its impact on net international reserves. The absence of scheduled releases leaves attention on peso liquidity conditions and any comments from senior BCRA officials.

Global commodity prices, particularly Brent and soybeans, will likely dictate equity direction. Investors also watch for signs of renewed fiscal consolidation measures ahead of the October primaries. July CPI at 3.8% m/m, below the 4.2% consensus, has reduced market odds of a September cut to roughly 25%.

Policy remains anchored at 38% with forward guidance stressing that reserves must stay above 35% of short-term liabilities before easing can resume. The central bank has kept the dólar soja premium at 20% to support export inflows through September.

Other Economic Notes

Export tax collections have continued to exceed forecasts, helping narrow the fiscal deficit despite soybean withholding. The government secured a $1.2 bn syndicated facility from CAF and IDB to strengthen reserves ahead of the election period. <i>↓ p.2</i>

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Persistent soybean exporter reluctance keeps pressure on the BCRA to maintain the dólar soja premium through September. Reserve coverage of short-term liabilities remains the central bank’s binding constraint on any policy easing. Net reserves recently rose $420 m to $29.8 bn.

Any further decline in coverage ratios would likely push the first rate reduction into Q4.

Global Macro News

Australia’s central bank signaled that further rate hikes remain possible after holding steady, adding to global tightening expectations. US Treasury yields rose while five-year breakevens fell to 2.2%, pointing to higher real rates rather than renewed inflation. The ECB announced it will begin implementing an enhanced repo facility for central banks, improving liquidity access.

Indian benchmarks closed sharply higher with Nifty reclaiming 24,750 on IT and bank strength. TETRA Technologies and Knight Therapeutics both reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results, lifting sentiment toward emerging-market credits. Central bank speeches from Ireland, Eswatini, and Germany emphasized resilience and openness amid shifting global conditions.

BCRA Watch

The BCRA continues to prioritize reserve accumulation ahead of the October primaries, with net reserves recently rising $420 m to $29.8 bn. July CPI at 3.8% m/m, below the 4.2% consensus, has reduced market odds of a September cut to roughly 25%. Policy remains anchored at 38% with forward guidance stressing that reserves must stay above 35% of short-term liabilities before easing can resume.

The central bank has kept the dólar soja premium at 20% to support export inflows through September. Any further decline in coverage ratios would likely push the first rate reduction into Q4.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)