Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
MERVAL Slides as Peso Holds Firm
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,999,524.00 | -0.76% |
| USD/ARS | 1,492.25 | +0.08% |
| EUR/ARS | 1,719.48 | -0.09% |
| Gold | 4,430.00 | +0.48% |
| Brent Crude | 87.25 | -1.94% |
| Soybean | 1,182.25 | +1.50% |
| Bitcoin | 63,559.49 | +0.25% |
| Argentina 10Y | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
MERVAL Index 3M | Type: market_hloc | Index: 3e+06 (2026-08-12) | Range: 2.708e+06–3.38e+06 | Trend(5pt): 2.793e+06,3.175e+06,3.177e+06,3.38e+06,3e+06
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- MERVAL falls 0.76% to 2,999,524 amid subdued trading
- USD/ARS rises 0.08% to 1,492.25 while soybean futures gain 1.50%
- Argentina 10Y bonds show no change as liquidity remains thin
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets closed lower with the MERVAL posting a 0.76% decline to 2,999,524 on limited volume and profit-taking in energy names. The peso traded in a narrow range as USD/ARS advanced just 0.08% to 1,492.25, reflecting steady BCRA intervention that capped depreciation pressure. EUR/ARS eased 0.09% to 1,719.48, tracking modest euro softening against the dollar.
Soybean prices climbed 1.50% to 1,182.25, bolstering prospects for export receipts and reserve accumulation. Brent crude dropped 1.94% to 87.25, trimming fiscal revenue from energy shipments. Gold rose 0.48% to 4,430, offering a safe-haven bid that supported broader emerging-market sentiment.
Bitcoin edged 0.25% higher to 63,559.49 with little spillover to local assets. No economic events were recorded in the prior session, leaving price action driven purely by commodity moves and thin local flows.
The Day Ahead
No major data releases are scheduled for the next three sessions according to the FinanceFlow calendar. Traders will monitor BCRA reserve updates and any incremental comments on the crawling peg. Soybean export flows remain the key domestic driver, with shipments expected to sustain the trade surplus.
Fiscal consolidation efforts continue to target primary balance improvements ahead of October obligations. Market participants await any signals on IMF program disbursements that could bolster net international reserves. Thin liquidity may keep volatility contained unless commodity prices shift sharply.
Brent’s decline and soybean strength will likely set the tone for near-term fiscal and external accounts.
Other Economic Notes
The peso’s stability supports gradual reserve rebuilding despite elevated inflation expectations. Soybean export revenues provide the main buffer for the current account while fiscal transfers face further real-term cuts. IMF program compliance remains central to restoring market access and containing debt-service costs.
Private-sector wage growth has moderated below prior BCRA forecasts, offering modest disinflation support. Provincial budget restraint continues to aid the primary surplus target without triggering immediate social pushback. Gold’s safe-haven bid and Brent’s pullback together shape external financing conditions for the months ahead.
