Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Peso Holds as Soybean Rally Bolsters Reserves
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,000,582.00 | +0.04% |
| USD/ARS | 1,491.50 | -0.07% |
| EUR/ARS | 1,720.34 | -0.01% |
| Gold | 4,403.50 | +0.91% |
| Brent Crude | 87.94 | +1.00% |
| Soybean | 1,191.00 | +1.95% |
| Bitcoin | 62,800.00 | -0.95% |
| Argentina 10Y | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
USD/ARS Exchange Rate (3mo) | Type: market_hloc | USD/ARS: 1492 (2026-08-14) | Range: 1390–1500 | Trend(6pt): 1392,1437,1479,1482,1491,1492
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- MERVAL edges 0.04% higher to 3,000,582 on selective buying
- USD/ARS slips 0.07% to 1,491.50 amid steady central bank sales
- Soybean futures jump 1.95%, lifting export revenue prospects
Yesterday's Recap
Argentine equity markets closed marginally firmer with the MERVAL advancing 0.04% to 3,000,582, supported by energy and bank names on modest foreign inflows. The official USD/ARS rate eased 0.07% to 1,491.50 as the BCRA maintained daily interventions to anchor the crawl. EUR/ARS traded little changed at 1,720.34 while the Argentina 10Y benchmark remained unquoted, reflecting thin liquidity.
Soybean prices surged 1.95% to 1,191.00, improving the outlook for export-tax collections and reserve accumulation. Brent crude rose 1.00% to 87.94, offering indirect support to fiscal accounts via higher energy export receipts. Gold climbed 0.91% to 4,403.50, providing a hedge reference for local investors.
Bitcoin fell 0.95% to 62,800.00, exerting limited spillover on domestic risk appetite.
The Day Ahead
Markets enter a data-light session with no scheduled releases from INDEC or the Treasury. Attention centers on BCRA foreign-exchange operations and any LEBAC auction results that could signal liquidity management. Traders will monitor soybean export registrations for further clues on reserve inflows.
The peso’s daily crawl remains the dominant focus, with participants watching for any deviation from the 1% monthly pace. Broader sentiment hinges on global commodity moves and their translation into Argentine export margins. Fiscal cash-flow updates are expected later in the week rather than today.
Other Economic Notes
The primary surplus trajectory continues to anchor credibility with multilateral lenders, limiting the need for abrupt spending cuts. Export volumes, particularly corn and soy-meal, remain the key driver of current-account improvement and reserve rebuilding. The extended dólar agro scheme at a 20% premium continues to channel foreign currency into the formal market.
Fiscal consolidation progress has reduced the risk of additional IMF-mandated tightening in the near term. These dynamics collectively support a gradual decline in inflation expectations despite the still-elevated USD/ARS level.
