MERVAL Slides as Peso Holds Steady

RoboMacro Research

MERVAL Slides as Peso Holds Steady

MERVAL2,947,349.00-1.77%

USD/ARS1,487.50-0.33%

EUR/ARS1,722.51+0.11%

Gold4,450.40+1.60%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,947,349.00	-1.77%
USD/ARS	1,487.50	-0.33%
EUR/ARS	1,722.51	+0.11%
Gold	4,450.40	+1.60%
Brent Crude	88.93	+0.46%
Soybean	1,195.50	+1.85%
Bitcoin	63,321.78	+0.80%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

MERVAL falls 1.77% to 2,947,349 on thin volumes
USD/ARS eases 0.33% to 1,487.50, narrowing parallel gap
Soybean prices jump 1.85%, bolstering export receipts

Yesterday's Recap

Equity markets closed lower as the MERVAL dropped 1.77% to 2,947,349 amid holiday-adjusted volumes and limited local participation. The peso firmed modestly, with USD/ARS declining 0.33% to 1,487.50 while EUR/ARS edged 0.11% higher to 1,722.51. Gold advanced 1.60% to 4,450.40 on safe-haven demand, and Brent crude rose 0.46% to 88.93.

Soybean futures gained 1.85% to 1,195.50, reflecting stronger Argentine export registrations. Bitcoin added 0.80% to 63,321.78, tracking global risk sentiment. The Argentina 10Y bond yield remained unchanged, indicating steady local demand for short-term LETRAS.

No major data prints altered the picture, leaving markets focused on reserve accumulation and fiscal signals. Thin trading reflected the empty economic calendar, with participants positioning ahead of potential BCRA updates and Treasury auctions rather than reacting to fresh releases.

The Day Ahead

No scheduled releases appear on the calendar for August 18, leaving focus on BCRA reserve updates and any Treasury bill auctions. Traders will monitor soybean export flows and IMF-related commentary for clues on reserve targets. Global risk appetite, driven by U.S.

yields and commodity prices, is expected to dictate peso and equity direction. The absence of fresh inflation or activity data keeps attention on forward guidance from the central bank. Market participants anticipate continued stability in the official FX rate ahead of the next policy statement.

Attention will also turn to any signals on multilateral disbursements that could further lift net international reserves beyond recent gains.

Other Economic Notes

Net international reserves have shown steady gains from soybean inflows and multilateral disbursements, supporting the BCRA’s ability to defend the currency band. Fiscal consolidation efforts remain central, with recent LETRAS auctions clearing at lower yields and signaling improved domestic appetite. Industrial production continues to contract year-on-year, highlighting the need for faster structural reforms to restore growth momentum.

IMF discussions on a new precautionary facility underscore the importance of credible medium-term fiscal targets. <i>↓ p.2</i>

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Export competitiveness benefits from elevated soybean prices, yet sustained reserve building will require tighter control over public spending. Recent auction results suggest domestic investors are responding positively to improved fiscal signals.

Global Macro News

Brazil’s former central banker stressed the need to rebuild fiscal credibility, a message relevant for Argentina’s own consolidation path amid shared EM investor scrutiny. Sri Lanka’s central bank warned of elevated near-term inflation, illustrating how commodity shocks can complicate policy in emerging markets similar to Argentina. Vietnam’s central bank signaled room for further liquidity injection while keeping rates high, highlighting divergent EM approaches to growth-inflation trade-offs.

The Bank of Thailand tightened oversight of non-bank lending, a reminder that regulatory tightening can affect cross-border capital flows into higher-yielding markets like Argentina. New Zealand’s central bank maintained mortgage deposit rules, reinforcing global caution on household leverage that indirectly influences risk sentiment toward Latin American assets. Broader concerns over U.S.-Iran tensions and rising inflation in several jurisdictions are keeping safe-haven demand for gold elevated, supporting Argentina’s export-linked revenues.

BCRA Watch

The BCRA continues to signal a measured approach to easing, with the hotter July inflation print reinforcing market expectations of only gradual rate cuts through year-end. Recent reserve gains to $27.8 billion, aided by IMF disbursements and export proceeds, have strengthened the bank’s ability to anchor the official exchange rate near 1,487.50. Forward guidance points to a positive real ex-ante policy rate persisting into 2027, limiting aggressive monetary loosening.

The next monetary-policy statement is expected to reiterate data dependence while highlighting fiscal progress as a precondition for further easing. Markets currently price limited probability of a September move, reflecting the central bank’s focus on inflation convergence and reserve adequacy over rapid rate relief.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)