Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
MERVAL Slides as FX Markets Steady
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,947,349.00 | -1.77% |
| USD/ARS | 1,487.50 | -0.14% |
| EUR/ARS | 1,722.35 | +2.90% |
| Gold | 4,449.10 | +0.71% |
| Brent Crude | 91.03 | +0.18% |
| Soybean | 1,224.75 | +1.98% |
| Bitcoin | 64,166.81 | -0.53% |
| Argentina 10Y | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
USD/ARS 3M | Type: market_hloc | ARS per USD: 1488 (2026-08-18) | Range: 1390–1500 | Trend(6pt): 1395,1446,1484,1482,1492,1488
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- MERVAL fell 1.77% to 2,947,349 amid thin trading with no domestic data releases.
- USD/ARS eased 0.14% to 1,487.50 while EUR/ARS jumped 2.90%, reflecting selective peso flows.
- Peter Thiel’s $76mn stake in Vista Energy highlights continued foreign interest in Argentine shale.
Yesterday's Recap
Argentine markets closed lower on August 17 with limited participation ahead of the weekend. The MERVAL index declined 1.77% to 2,947,349 as energy and financial names led losses. USD/ARS traded 0.14% softer at 1,487.50, while the euro-linked pair rose sharply to 1,722.35.
Gold advanced 0.71% to 4,449.10 and Brent crude gained 0.18% to 91.03, providing modest support to commodity-linked assets. Soybean futures climbed 1.98% to 1,224.75, buoyed by stronger export registrations. Bitcoin slipped 0.53% to 64,166.81.
The Argentina 10Y benchmark showed no price change in a quiet session. No economic releases occurred, leaving price action driven by external flows and positioning. Commodity strength offered a partial offset to equity weakness, with soybean gains underscoring the role of agricultural exports in supporting hard-currency inflows.
The Day Ahead
No scheduled releases appear on the calendar for August 18-19, keeping focus on external drivers. Traders will monitor soybean export volumes and any updates on the Treasury’s September rollover schedule. BCRA weekly monetary and reserve data are due mid-week and will be watched for signs of reserve accumulation.
Markets also await any signals on the timing of renewed IMF talks targeting a 2027 primary surplus. Equity and FX volumes are expected to remain subdued until fresh domestic prints emerge later in the month. External factors such as global risk sentiment and commodity price movements will likely dictate near-term peso and equity direction.
Other Economic Notes
Fiscal consolidation continues to anchor sentiment, with the primary surplus streak supporting reserve rebuilding. Soybean export proceeds remain the key near-term source of hard currency, aided by the current price level above 1,220. Foreign direct investment interest, evidenced by the Thiel-Vista transaction, points to shale sector resilience despite macro volatility.
Peso stability at current levels reduces immediate pressure on import costs and inflation pass-through. Broader EM flows will determine whether the recent EUR/ARS strength persists or reverses. Continued reserve gains from agricultural inflows could further ease external financing needs ahead of potential IMF engagement.
