MERVAL Climbs as Peso Firms on Thin Data

RoboMacro Research

MERVAL Climbs as Peso Firms on Thin Data

MERVAL3,061,512.00+1.08%

USD/ARS1,509.50-0.21%

EUR/ARS1,734.27-0.05%

Gold4,432.90+0.75%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	3,061,512.00	+1.08%
USD/ARS	1,509.50	-0.21%
EUR/ARS	1,734.27	-0.05%
Gold	4,432.90	+0.75%
Brent Crude	98.53	-6.00%
Soybean	1,304.25	-1.17%
Bitcoin	78,374.80	+2.58%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

MERVAL rose 1.08% to 3,061,512 while USD/ARS fell 0.21% to 1,509.50, showing modest peso strength.
Brent crude dropped 6% to 98.53 and soybeans fell 1.17%, weighing on export revenue prospects.
No economic releases occurred yesterday or today, leaving markets without fresh inflation or activity signals.

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine equities advanced while the peso posted modest gains against the dollar and euro. The MERVAL index closed 1.08% higher at 3,061,512.00 with no domestic data prints to drive the move. USD/ARS eased 0.21% to 1,509.50 and EUR/ARS slipped 0.05% to 1,734.27, indicating contained depreciation pressure.

Gold rose 0.75% to 4,432.90 while Brent crude plunged 6% to 98.53 and soybeans declined 1.17% to 1,304.25, trimming potential export earnings. Bitcoin gained 2.58% to 78,374.80. The Argentina 10-year yield section remained unreported.

With zero events on the calendar, price action reflected thin trading and external commodity moves rather than local fundamentals. The environmental report on Reconquista River clean-up efforts provided the sole Argentina-specific item but carried no policy implications.

The Day Ahead

No official data releases are scheduled for September 18 or 19, leaving traders without new inflation, trade or activity figures. Markets will focus on global commodity prices and any BCRA reserve updates that may surface through secondary channels. Soybean and crude movements remain key for near-term peso flows given Argentina’s export profile.

Fiscal consolidation progress and IMF programme compliance will stay in focus absent fresh statistics. Liquidity conditions and any intervention signals from the central bank could influence USD/ARS trading ranges. Participants will monitor external rate decisions for spillovers into emerging-market currencies.

Other Economic Notes

The absence of scheduled releases keeps attention on structural themes such as fiscal balance and reserve accumulation. Soybean export proceeds continue to anchor hard-currency inflows, yet lower prices observed yesterday could trim monthly totals. Peso stability at current levels supports the gradual disinflation path but requires sustained fiscal discipline to avoid renewed pressure.

Broader credit conditions remain tight, limiting domestic demand while the government maintains primary surplus targets under the IMF framework. Environmental clean-up efforts along the Reconquista River highlight long-term infrastructure needs without immediate macroeconomic impact.

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Global Macro News

The US Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023 to address persistently high inflation, diverging from earlier market expectations of cuts. Japan’s central bank lifted its benchmark rate to 1.25%, reinforcing a global tightening bias among major central banks. New Zealand GDP expanded 0.2% in Q2, beating forecasts and reducing recession risks for that economy.

ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf noted ongoing uncertainty around inflation and growth, keeping policy options open. Nigeria raised N748.6bn in its latest bond auction as investor demand remained firm despite easing yields. Vietnam’s central bank adjusted its reference exchange rate higher following the Fed move, illustrating spillovers to emerging-market currencies.

Singapore’s MAS policy alignment with the new US stance underscores coordinated responses to imported inflation pressures. These shifts collectively support a stronger dollar environment that can transmit to peso valuation and Argentine external financing costs.

BCRA Watch

The Central Bank of Argentina issued no new statements, speeches or policy signals on September 17. With the economic calendar empty, markets received no fresh forward guidance on the monetary policy rate or reserve management strategy. The peso’s modest appreciation occurred without visible BCRA intervention, suggesting current levels remain within tolerated bands.

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Continuation

BCRA Watch (continued)

Absent explicit communications, traders continue to price policy on the basis of prior reserve accumulation targets and fiscal commitments under the IMF programme. Any future rate decision will likely hinge on monthly inflation prints and soybean export proceeds rather than immediate global rate differentials. The committee’s next move remains data-dependent, with no indication of imminent easing or tightening bias in official channels.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)