MERVAL Slides as Peso Weakens

RoboMacro Research

MERVAL Slides as Peso Weakens

MERVAL2,998,956.00-0.76%

USD/ARS1,514.00+0.31%

EUR/ARS1,736.48+3.22%

Gold4,354.70-0.67%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,998,956.00	-0.76%
USD/ARS	1,514.00	+0.31%
EUR/ARS	1,736.48	+3.22%
Gold	4,354.70	-0.67%
Brent Crude	99.59	-0.75%
Soybean	1,321.75	-0.47%
Bitcoin	85,879.68	-0.84%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

MERVAL fell 0.76% to 2,998,956 while USD/ARS rose 0.31% to 1,514.00.
No economic data releases occurred on September 21, leaving policy expectations unchanged.
Argentina CPI YoY stood at 33.5% as of August 31, underscoring persistent price pressures.

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine equities closed lower as the MERVAL index declined 0.76% to 2,998,956.00. The peso weakened modestly, with USD/ARS advancing 0.31% to 1,514.00 and EUR/ARS surging 3.22% to 1,736.48. Commodity prices relevant to Argentine exports eased, as Brent Crude dropped 0.75% to 99.59 and Soybean futures fell 0.47% to 1,321.75.

No inflation, activity or fiscal prints were released, so markets received no fresh signals on the pace of disinflation or the primary balance. Gold declined 0.67% to 4,354.70 amid broader risk-on sentiment. Bitcoin fell 0.84% to 85,879.68, providing little support to local sentiment.

With the Argentina 10Y yield data unavailable, attention stayed on spot FX moves and the absence of BCRA intervention signals.

The Day Ahead

The calendar remains empty for September 22 and 23, with zero scheduled releases on inflation, trade or fiscal accounts. Traders will therefore focus on external drivers such as soybean and crude prices that directly affect export receipts. Any movement in global risk appetite could influence peso demand through portfolio flows.

Market participants will also watch for any informal BCRA guidance on reserve management ahead of the next IMF review. Soybean export proceeds remain the key near-term source of FX supply. Absence of domestic prints keeps attention on the 33.5% CPI YoY print from August.

Other Economic Notes

Fiscal consolidation continues to anchor policy credibility, yet the 33.5% CPI YoY reading shows that real wage recovery and domestic demand remain constrained. Soybean export volumes will determine the speed of reserve accumulation and the sustainability of the current FX regime. IMF programme compliance hinges on maintaining primary surpluses and limiting monetary financing, limiting room for rate cuts.

External vulnerability stays elevated given the narrow export base and dependence on commodity prices. Any sustained decline in soybean futures would pressure the trade balance and complicate BCRA efforts to stabilise reserves.

Page 1

Global Macro News

Hopes for diplomatic progress between the US and Iran pushed Brent Crude lower, easing imported inflation risks for Argentina while reducing export revenue from energy. European equities advanced on earnings optimism, supporting risk sentiment that could lift Argentine assets if sustained. New Zealand’s central bank flagged downside risks to growth and inflation, echoing concerns shared by several emerging-market policymakers.

Australia’s central bank warned that inflation risks may be materialising, reinforcing a cautious global rate outlook. German GDP is projected to grow only slightly in Q3, signalling subdued European demand for Argentine commodities. Indian bonds remained steady as rate-hike expectations firmed, illustrating how higher global yields can compete with Argentine assets for capital.

Foreign inflows into Pakistani bonds jumped, showing selective appetite for frontier debt that may extend to Argentina if fiscal targets hold. Overall, softer oil prices and mixed central-bank signals create a neutral-to-supportive backdrop for commodity-linked currencies.

BCRA Watch

With no fresh data or statements released, the BCRA maintains its existing policy stance focused on reserve preservation and gradual disinflation. The committee voted to hold rates at the prior meeting, providing no explicit forward guidance on timing of any easing. Market participants interpret the silence as continued emphasis on defending the peso and avoiding premature loosening that could reignite capital outflows.

↓ p.3

Continuation

BCRA Watch (continued)

The 33.5% CPI YoY level keeps real rates restrictive in nominal terms, supporting the current FX regime. Any acceleration in soybean inflows would allow the BCRA greater flexibility to manage liquidity without widening the gap between official and parallel rates. Absent new communications, traders price in steady intervention to smooth volatility rather than aggressive reserve sales.

The focus remains on whether the bank will tolerate further peso depreciation to protect net reserves ahead of upcoming debt payments.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)