IMF Deal Advances as Peso Firms

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IMF Deal Advances as Peso Firms

MERVAL2,848,945.00-0.35%

USD/ARS1,538.25-0.16%

EUR/ARS1,710.72-0.63%

Gold4,067.30-0.18%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,848,945.00	-0.35%
USD/ARS	1,538.25	-0.16%
EUR/ARS	1,710.72	-0.63%
Gold	4,067.30	-0.18%
Brent Crude	110.94	-2.58%
Soybean	1,246.50	+1.40%
Bitcoin	81,345.24	+0.67%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Net Quasi-Fiscal Deficit (Interest on Leliqs)

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

IMF staff-level agreement on third review of $20bn programme could unlock ~$900mn, though market return prospects dim
Peso firmed 0.16% to 1,538.25/USD; MERVAL slipped 0.35% to 2,848,945
Soybean complex rallied 1.40% while Brent crude tumbled 2.58%, reshaping Argentina's external terms of trade

Yesterday's Recap

Argentina's asset complex traded a quiet session with no scheduled domestic data releases, leaving price action to reflect positioning around the IMF headline flow. The MERVAL gave back 0.35% to close at 2,848,945, a modest pullback that nonetheless keeps the index near recent highs. The peso strengthened 0.16% to 1,538.25 per dollar, extending a gradual appreciation trend as the crawling-band regime continues to anchor FX expectations.

The euro cross fell 0.63% to 1,710.72, reflecting broader dollar dynamics rather than idiosyncratic Argentina flow. In commodities, soybean prices rose 1.40% to 1,246.50, a constructive signal for the Rosario export complex and forward FX liquidation. Brent crude dropped 2.58% to 110.94, a mixed development — cheaper energy imports help the trade balance, but the move signals softer global demand.

The Argentina 10-year yield was not quoted in the data feed, leaving the curve's direction unconfirmed for the session.

The Day Ahead

The domestic calendar is empty for Thursday, October 29, with no scheduled Argentina data releases, meaning markets will again trade off external flow and IMF-related headlines. Attention will centre on any official confirmation of the staff-level agreement's timing and disbursement mechanics, which could set the tone for sovereign bonds and the parallel FX spread. Traders will also watch the crawling-band pace for signals on BCRA reserve accumulation strategy.

With no local prints to anchor positioning, the peso and MERVAL will likely take direction from global risk appetite and commodity moves. Soybean follow-through matters given the export complex's role in hard-currency generation.

Other Economic Notes

The IMF staff-level agreement on the third review of Argentina's $20bn programme is the dominant macro theme, with roughly $900mn potentially unlocked — a critical bridge for reserve coverage. Bloomberg Economics notes the deal tones down language even as market return prospects dim, suggesting the Fund is prioritising programme continuity over ambitious reform milestones. Fiscal consolidation remains the anchor of the programme, and the government's primary-balance trajectory will be scrutinised as social spending pressures build.

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Soybean export receipts are the swing variable for reserve accumulation, and the 1.40% price rally offers modest relief. CPI at 33.4% year-on-year as of September remains the key constraint on real-rate policy and household purchasing power.

Global Macro News

Global markets are in a wait-and-see posture ahead of a dense week of central bank decisions, with equities mixed as investors digest rate-path uncertainty. New Zealand's central bank surprised markets by holding rates at 2.75% while signalling likely hikes — a hawkish hold that underscores how inflation risks are re-emerging across small open economies. South Korea's economy beat its own central bank's forecast by a wide margin, with GDP up 1.0% quarter-on-quarter driven by AI chip demand, a reminder that technology-cycle strength is skewing global growth differentials.

CommBank economists now forecast a November RBA hike as Australian inflation risks build. Thailand held its policy rate at 1% amid economic recovery concerns, while Egypt's central bank faces a rate dilemma as currency pressures revive inflation risks. For Argentina, the common thread is a global backdrop tilting hawkish, which raises the opportunity cost of holding peso assets and complicates BCRA's real-rate calculus.

Softer Brent at 110.94 eases the import bill but signals demand fragility in key trading partners.

Continuation

BCRA Watch

The Central Bank of Argentina has not issued a fresh policy statement in the current window, so markets are reading the crawling-band trajectory and reserve dynamics as the de facto guidance. The peso's 0.16% appreciation to 1,538.25 suggests the band is being managed with a modestly tighter crawl, consistent with the disinflation objective anchored by September CPI at 33.4% year-on-year. The IMF staff-level agreement, if confirmed, would bolster reserve buffers by roughly $900mn and give the BCRA more room to defend the band without accelerating the crawl.

Crucially, the Fund's toned-down language implies the BCRA retains flexibility on FX intervention rather than being locked into a rigid target. For markets, the read-through is that the monetary authority is prioritising nominal stability and reserve accumulation over rapid rate normalisation. Watch for any BCRA communication clarifying sterilisation policy and the pace of reserve build — that will determine whether the recent peso firmness is durable or merely positioning-driven.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)