Pope Rebukes Milei as Peso Holds Steady

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Pope Rebukes Milei as Peso Holds Steady

MERVAL2,848,945.00-0.35%

USD/ARS1,545.00-0.00%

EUR/ARS1,723.84-0.63%

Gold4,105.00+0.74%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,848,945.00	-0.35%
USD/ARS	1,545.00	-0.00%
EUR/ARS	1,723.84	-0.63%
Gold	4,105.00	+0.74%
Brent Crude	96.65	-1.70%
Soybean	1,198.00	+0.76%
Bitcoin	74,356.17	-0.31%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Net Quasi-Fiscal Deficit (Interest on Leliqs)

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Pope Leo XIV publicly rebukes Milei's austerity program during Argentina visit, injecting political risk into the fiscal consolidation narrative.
USD/ARS effectively flat at 1,545 while the MERVAL slips 0.35%; hard-currency sovereign curve marks time with no fresh 10Y print.
BCRA holds a steady hand as regional central banks diverge — Banxico cuts unexpectedly, Chile flags a possible hike.

Yesterday's Recap

Argentina's domestic calendar was empty on Sunday, leaving markets to digest political rather than macroeconomic news. The MERVAL closed at 2,848,945, down 0.35%, a modest risk-off move consistent with the Pope's public criticism of the government's austerity stance. The peso was essentially unchanged, with USD/ARS at 1,545.00 and EUR/ARS easing 0.63% to 1,723.84, suggesting no meaningful official-market pressure.

The Argentina 10Y did not print a fresh level, so the sovereign curve offered no incremental signal. In commodities, soybean gained 0.76% to 1,198.00, a supportive backdrop for the export complex that underpins FX settlement. Brent fell 1.70% to 96.65, trimming some of the energy-import bill but signaling softer global demand expectations.

Gold rose 0.74% to 4,105.00, a reminder that hard-asset demand remains firm even as Argentine local assets tread water.

The Day Ahead

Monday's Argentine calendar is empty, with no scheduled domestic data releases, so price action will be driven by the political narrative around the papal visit and by offshore risk sentiment. Traders will watch the official FX market for any widening of the crawl or intervention signals, and the parallel-market spread for signs of stress. Local equity flows may react to headlines from the Pope's tour, particularly any further commentary on social spending and the pace of adjustment.

With no BCRA communication scheduled, the market will lean on last week's guidance and on the weekly reserve and deposit prints later in the week. Expect thin liquidity and headline-driven volatility rather than data-driven direction.

Other Economic Notes

The disinflation trajectory remains the anchor of the macro story, with CPI at 33.4% year-on-year as of September, a level that keeps real-rate math tight and complicates any premature easing. Fiscal consolidation continues to be the government's central credibility asset, but the Pope's intervention highlights the social durability question that investors increasingly price. Soybean strength is a quiet positive for the export complex and reserve accumulation, though India's oilmeal imports fell 28.5% as soymeal demand shifts toward Brazil and Argentina — a reminder that trade flows are reallocating.

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Page 1

Other Economic Notes (continued)

The political calendar now carries more weight than the data calendar, and any softening in the austerity message would be read as a fiscal risk premium event.

Global Macro News

Asian equities tumbled as the AI-linked selloff deepened, sending tech-heavy indexes toward bear-market territory and souring the global risk backdrop that Argentina's high-beta assets track. US chip stocks rebounded as dip buyers emerged despite solid economic readings that reinforced expectations the Fed will stay restrictive, keeping dollar funding costs elevated for emerging markets. Banxico surprised with a cut to 6.25% even as the peso weakened, signaling that regional central banks are willing to look through inflation risk to support growth.

Chile's October prices rose 4.5%, with the central bank flagging a possible hike — a hawkish counterpoint that underscores how uneven the LatAm easing cycle has become. Australia's central bank raised rates to an 18-year high, and the Bank of England's hike left room for another, reinforcing a global bias toward tighter-for-longer. The dollar's strength, amplified by US inflation data due this week, remains the key external constraint on Argentine asset valuations.

BCRA Watch

The Central Bank of Argentina has maintained a cautious, stability-first posture, holding its policy stance steady while allowing the crawling peg to do the heavy lifting on competitiveness. ↓ p.3

Continuation

BCRA Watch (continued)

Recent communications have emphasized reserve accumulation and the primacy of the fiscal anchor, with the BCRA framing disinflation at 33.4% year-on-year as evidence that the program is working, albeit gradually. Forward guidance has avoided committing to a specific easing timeline, instead tying any rate normalization to sustained declines in inflation expectations and rebuilt reserves. For markets, the practical implication is a tight real-rate environment that supports peso carry but caps local credit growth, and a central bank reluctant to loosen prematurely for fear of rekindling indexation pressures.

The BCRA's tolerance for FX flexibility, rather than abrupt devaluation, keeps the carry trade intact while leaving the sovereign curve sensitive to reserve prints. Any shift in tone toward explicit easing would be read as a signal that the disinflation fight is being deprioritized — a risk worth monitoring as political noise from the papal visit builds.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)