Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Morgan Stanley Sees Value in Argentina Bonds
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,848,945.00 | -0.35% |
| USD/ARS | 1,545.25 | -0.03% |
| EUR/ARS | 1,725.21 | -0.54% |
| Gold | 4,064.70 | +0.86% |
| Brent Crude | 91.64 | +0.16% |
| Soybean | 1,226.25 | +0.14% |
| Bitcoin | 73,658.72 | -0.08% |
| Argentina 10Y | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Government Consumption Real YoY | Type: macro_line | Government Consumption Real YoY: 55.67 (2030-01-01) | Range: 55.67–155.4 | Trend(5pt): 84.46,85.33,68.23,63.34,55.67
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Argentina 10Y yield data unavailable; MERVAL slips 0.35% to 2,848,945 as equities consolidate
- USD/ARS holds near 1,545.25 (-0.03%); EUR/ARS weakens 0.54% to 1,725.21
- Morgan Stanley argues Argentina bonds price in excessive pessimism ahead of 2027 presidential election
Yesterday's Recap
Argentine assets traded mixed-to-soft on November 10, with the MERVAL shedding 0.35% to close at 2,848,945 points as investors booked profits following recent gains. The peso was essentially flat, with USD/ARS at 1,545.25 (-0.03%) and EUR/ARS at 1,725.21 (-0.54%), reflecting continued managed-float dynamics under the current FX framework. Argentina 10Y bond yield data was unavailable in the feed, though the broader fixed-income complex remains the focal point for foreign investors.
Gold rose 0.86% to $4,064.70/oz, while Brent crude edged up 0.16% to $91.64/bbl, providing modest support to energy-linked names. Soybean futures gained 0.14% to $1,226.25/bu, a marginal positive for the agricultural export complex that underpins FX accumulation. Bitcoin slipped 0.08% to $73,658.72, with crypto remaining a peripheral but sentiment-sensitive asset for Argentine retail investors.
No official Argentine data releases were scheduled for the session.
The Day Ahead
The calendar is empty for November 11, with no scheduled Argentine data releases, leaving markets to trade on external cues and positioning flows. Attention shifts to the global rates backdrop, where Fed commentary and Brazil's central bank guidance will influence regional risk appetite. Argentine bond investors will continue to parse Morgan Stanley's thesis that current spreads overstate political risk into the 2027 election cycle.
FX desks will monitor whether the peso's narrow trading band holds amid thin liquidity. With no domestic catalysts, expect range-bound trading in the MERVAL and continued low volatility in the official FX rate.
Other Economic Notes
Argentina's disinflation trajectory remains the anchor for the macro outlook, with CPI at 33.4% year-over-year as of September 30, a marked improvement from prior years though still elevated by regional standards. Fiscal consolidation continues under the current administration, with primary balance discipline central to the IMF programme's credibility. Soybean export receipts remain a critical FX lever, and the marginal gain in futures prices offers modest relief for reserve accumulation.
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