Brazil Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Retail Sales Test Brazil's Sticky Inflation
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | 172,021.00 | -0.25% |
| USD/BRL | 5.15 | +0.22% |
| EUR/BRL | 5.90 | +0.34% |
| Vale | 14.69 | -2.65% |
| Petrobras | 16.66 | +2.46% |
| WTI Crude | 74.50 | +5.76% |
| Gold | 4,079.40 | -1.59% |
| Bitcoin | 62,015.70 | -2.02% |
| Brazil Short-term Rate | 14.50% | -1.69% |
| Brazil Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Brazil Exports Value | Type: macro_line | USD mn: 9.567 (2026-05-01) | Range: -15.76–52.25 | Trend(6pt): 52.25,18.73,12.38,5.277,14.47,9.567
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -1.50 | - | 04:00 |
| Friday (2026-07-10) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.58 | 0.32 | 04:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.72 | 4.80 | 04:00 |
- Bovespa slips 0.25% to 172,021 while USD/BRL rises 0.22% to 5.15 on thin volumes.
- Retail sales due today after May industrial output beat; Friday IPCA print will reset cut odds.
- Selic holds at 14.50% with markets pricing limited easing through year-end amid sticky inflation.
Yesterday's Recap
No Brazilian data releases occurred on July 7. Bovespa closed 0.25% lower at 172,021, pressured by Vale’s 2.65% drop to 14.69 while Petrobras gained 2.46% to 16.66. USD/BRL rose 0.22% to 5.15 and EUR/BRL added 0.34% to 5.90.
WTI crude jumped 5.76% to 74.50, supporting energy names, whereas gold fell 1.59% to 4,079.40. The Brazil short-term rate remained at 14.50%, down 1.69% on the day, with the long-term rate unchanged. Equity and FX moves stayed modest ahead of today’s retail sales print.
The Day Ahead
June retail sales month-over-month are scheduled for release at 04:00 ET, following May’s -1.5% reading. Markets will watch for signs of consumer resilience after industrial production surprised higher last month. On Friday, IPCA inflation is expected at 0.32% month-over-month and 4.80% year-over-year.
The prints will directly shape August COPOM pricing. No BCB speeches or minutes are listed. Traders will also monitor iron-ore and soy export flows for commodity revenue signals.
Other Economic Notes
Persistent technology and climate-driven cost pressures continue to complicate inflation control despite lower global oil prices. XP analysts note structural limits to further Selic reductions even after any conflict-related supply shocks fade. Fiscal slippage concerns remain elevated as Senate resistance to spending restraint keeps risk premiums wide.
IPCA-linked assets have outperformed CDI over long horizons, underscoring the value of inflation protection for Brazilian portfolios. Primary-balance targets for 2026 stay in focus for Haddad’s team.
Global Macro News
Softer Chinese demand weighed on iron-ore futures, pressuring Vale shares despite the broader commodity rebound. Brazil’s May trade surplus reached $8.9 billion on record soy shipments, cushioning the current-account balance. Global oil volatility lifted Petrobras but left WTI-sensitive fiscal revenues uncertain.
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