Brazil Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Awaiting Inflation Print After Retail Sales Miss
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | 170,654.00 | -0.79% |
| USD/BRL | 5.15 | -0.50% |
| EUR/BRL | 5.88 | -0.16% |
| Vale | 14.05 | -4.36% |
| Petrobras | 17.24 | +3.48% |
| WTI Crude | 72.85 | -0.91% |
| Gold | 4,119.40 | +1.19% |
| Bitcoin | 62,857.71 | +0.96% |
| Brazil Short-term Rate | 14.50% | -1.69% |
| Brazil Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -1.50 | - | - |
Brazil Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | %: 14.5 (2026-05-01) | Range: 5.12–15 | Trend(6pt): 5.12,13.75,11.96,13.25,14.75,14.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-07-10) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.58 | 0.31 | 04:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.72 | 4.80 | 04:00 |
- Retail Sales MoM prints flat amid prior contraction, leaving BRL supported.
- IMF lifts 2026 GDP forecast while flagging 2027 slowdown risks.
- Selic holds at 14.50% as BCB maintains cautious stance on inflation.
Yesterday's Recap
Brazil reported Retail Sales MoM with no new figure released versus the prior -1.5% reading, offering limited surprise but confirming subdued consumer momentum. Bovespa closed 0.79% lower at 170,654 amid broad equity weakness, while USD/BRL eased 0.50% to 5.15 on modest risk-on flows. Vale fell 4.36% to 14.05 as iron-ore futures softened, yet Petrobras rose 3.48% to 17.24 on firmer oil margins.
The Brazil short-term rate remained anchored at 14.50%, with long-term yields showing no material shift. No COPOM speakers appeared, leaving markets focused on incoming inflation prints.
The Day Ahead
Brazil will release Inflation Rate MoM and YoY figures tomorrow at 04:00 ET, with consensus at 0.31% and 4.80% respectively against prior prints of 0.58% and 4.72%. The data carry medium impact and will directly shape expectations for the next COPOM meeting. Traders will monitor whether the MoM slowdown reinforces the case for measured easing.
No BCB speeches are scheduled, keeping attention squarely on the inflation release and any revisions to 2026 growth projections.
Other Economic Notes
The basic food basket rose in price across 17 state capitals in June, adding pressure on household costs and near-term inflation. The U.S. share of Brazil’s trade fell to a record low in the first half, underscoring shifting export destinations toward Asia.
IMF upgraded Brazil’s 2026 GDP outlook yet warned of a material slowdown in 2027, highlighting fiscal and external risks. Origem Energia’s pursuit of a $2–2.5 billion valuation signals continued private-sector interest in domestic energy assets.
Global Macro News
China’s widening trade surplus lifted commodity sentiment, indirectly supporting Brazilian iron-ore and soybean exporters despite Vale’s equity weakness. Global oil prices eased 0.91% to 72.85, tempering upside for Petrobras despite its local outperformance. Gold advanced 1.19% to 4,119.40 as a hedge against lingering inflation concerns in emerging markets.
Bitcoin gained 0.96% to 62,857.71, reflecting broader risk appetite that also capped USD/BRL gains. <i>↓ p.2</i>
