Brazil Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
IPCA Eases to 4.44% as Bovespa Falls 2.5%
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | 167,875.00 | -2.50% |
| USD/BRL | 5.17 | +1.28% |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.05% |
| Vale | 14.32 | -3.83% |
| Petrobras | 17.93 | -2.18% |
| WTI Crude | 83.28 | +0.10% |
| Gold | 4,462.60 | +1.82% |
| Bitcoin | 63,732.19 | +0.28% |
| Brazil Short-term Rate | 14.39% | -0.76% |
| Brazil Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BCB Copom Meeting Minutes | - | - | - |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.64 | 4.40 | 4.44 |
Brazil Policy Rate (Selic) | Type: macro_line | Rate %: 14.39 (2026-06-01) | Range: 5.52–15 | Trend(6pt): 5.52,13.75,11.75,13.64,14.5,14.39
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-08-13) | |||
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.10 | 04:00 |
| Business Confidence | 44.40 | - | 06:00 |
- IPCA MoM at 0.07% tops consensus 0.03%, YoY eases to 4.44%
- Bovespa falls 2.5% to 167,875, USD/BRL jumps 1.28% to 5.17
- Selic holds at 14.25% as COPOM minutes signal steady path
Yesterday's Recap
Brazil released July IPCA data showing 0.07% MoM and 4.44% YoY, both slightly above consensus yet confirming the disinflation trend from the prior 4.64% reading. The BCB Copom Meeting Minutes highlighted the committee's focus on anchoring expectations around the 3% target amid contained core measures. Equity markets reacted negatively, with Bovespa declining 2.5% to 167,875 while Vale fell 3.83% and Petrobras dropped 2.18% on broader risk-off flows.
The real weakened sharply, lifting USD/BRL 1.28% to 5.17 and EUR/BRL 1.05% higher. Short-term rates eased 0.76% to 14.39% as futures priced limited near-term policy shifts. Commodity linkages remained mixed, with WTI Crude edging up 0.10% and gold rising 1.82%.
No major fiscal releases altered the picture, leaving investor attention on external drivers. Near-record global food inventories and improved farming technology continue to buffer Brazil's export sector against El Nino risks, supporting soybean and meat shipments.
The Day Ahead
Retail Sales MoM and Business Confidence prints are scheduled for release tomorrow, with consensus pointing to a modest 0.1% gain in sales. Markets will assess whether domestic demand shows resilience after the latest inflation data. Business Confidence is expected to remain near the prior 44.4 level, offering insight into corporate sentiment ahead of potential Selic adjustments.
No BCB speeches or additional high-impact data are listed for today. Traders will monitor global commodity prices for spillover effects on iron-ore and oil exporters. BRICS discussions on linking payment systems and CBDCs could eventually ease cross-border frictions for Brazilian trade.
Other Economic Notes
Primary-balance data released earlier showed a narrower deficit, reinforcing the government's 0.5% of GDP surplus target for 2026. Aluminum supply cuts in Brazil added upward pressure on prices, benefiting related industrial exports. Fiscal sustainability remains a watchpoint as debt-service costs stay elevated at current Selic levels.
Iron-ore exports to China rose 6% y/y in July, though steel demand indicators softened. Finance Minister Haddad reiterated the 2026 primary-surplus target of 0.5% of GDP, calming fiscal concerns.
