Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Surveys Loom as TSX Rises on Pipeline Deal
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,247.30 | +0.80% |
| USD/CAD | 1.42 | +0.19% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | +0.15% |
| WTI Crude | 68.58 | -0.16% |
| Natural Gas | 3.20 | +0.25% |
| Gold | 4,167.70 | +1.34% |
| Brent Crude | 71.96 | +0.22% |
| Bitcoin | 62,836.61 | -1.12% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment Rate (%): 6.6 (2026-05-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 7.1,5.1,5.8,6.6,6.9,6.6
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Business Outlook Survey | - | - | 06:30 |
| BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations | - | - | 06:30 |
| Tuesday (2026-07-07) | |||
| Trade Balance | 2,720m | 2,700m | 04:30 |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 58.20 | 59.10 | 06:00 |
| Friday (2026-07-10) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.60 | 6.60 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 88,000 | 10,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 154,000 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
- Bank of Canada Business Outlook and Consumer Expectations surveys release today with markets watching for growth signals.
- S&P/TSX advances 0.80% while USD/CAD climbs to 1.42 on softer oil and steady policy outlook.
- Canada 2-year yield holds at 2.24% matching the policy rate as 10-year yield rises to 3.54%.
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets closed higher with the S&P/TSX gaining 0.80% to 35,247.30 amid progress on a new crude pipeline to the Pacific coast. The Canadian dollar weakened as USD/CAD rose 0.19% to 1.42 and EUR/CAD advanced 0.15% to 1.62. Energy prices showed mixed moves with WTI crude slipping 0.16% to 68.58 while natural gas edged up 0.25% to 3.20.
Gold rallied 1.34% to 4,167.70 providing some support to related TSX components. Government of Canada yields reflected steady short-term pricing at the 2-year tenor while the 10-year climbed 1.67% to 3.54%. News flow highlighted federal and Alberta agreement on the pipeline project after extended negotiations on export capacity.
The Day Ahead
The Bank of Canada releases its Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations at 06:30 ET, both carrying medium impact. Markets will parse the results for signs of business investment intentions and household inflation expectations. Tomorrow brings the June trade balance at 04:30 ET with consensus near 2.7 billion CAD followed by the Ivey PMI at 06:00 ET expected to rise to 59.1.
Friday’s employment report will deliver the unemployment rate, employment change and participation figures. Energy traders will monitor Brent crude and natural gas for any spillover into CAD crosses ahead of the data.
Other Economic Notes
Canada’s productivity challenges remain central as policymakers emphasize shareholder returns and capital allocation efficiency. The new pipeline agreement signals stronger energy export capacity that could lift long-term fiscal revenues. CPI at 2.32% continues to anchor expectations near the Bank of Canada target.
Broader themes include sustained focus on commodity-linked growth and measured fiscal support for infrastructure.
Global Macro News
Global oil prices stayed range-bound with Brent at 71.96 while softer US jobs data weighed on commodity currencies including the loonie. Bitcoin declined 1.12% to 62,836.61 reflecting risk-off sentiment across risk assets. Central bank communications elsewhere reinforced cautious easing paths that keep Canadian yields competitive.
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