Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Surveys Show Cooling Inflation Fears
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,212.30 | -0.10% |
| USD/CAD | 1.42 | +0.07% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.63 | +0.04% |
| WTI Crude | 69.14 | +0.86% |
| Natural Gas | 3.28 | +1.11% |
| Gold | 4,156.80 | +0.04% |
| Brent Crude | 72.69 | +0.97% |
| Bitcoin | 63,306.87 | -1.08% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Business Outlook Survey | - | - | "" |
| BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations | - | - | "" |
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | %: 6.6 (2026-05-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 7.1,5.1,5.8,6.6,6.9,6.6
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 2,720m | 2,700m | 04:30 |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 58.20 | 59.10 | 06:00 |
| Friday (2026-07-10) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.60 | 6.60 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 88,000 | 10,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 154,000 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | -66,200 | - | 04:30 |
- BoC business and consumer surveys released yesterday revealed weaker sentiment amid prior oil shocks, with inflation expectations easing after the U.S.-Iran deal.
- S&P/TSX fell 0.10% to 35,212.30 while USD/CAD rose 0.07% to 1.42; Canada 2-year yields held at 2.24% and 10-year yields climbed to 3.54%.
- Ivey PMI and trade balance due today; focus remains on whether softening confidence alters BoC policy path at the 2.24% overnight rate.
Yesterday's Recap
The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations, both showing reduced business and consumer confidence after earlier oil price volatility. Inflation expectations cooled following the U.S.-Iran deal, reversing prior upward pressure noted in the reports. Markets absorbed the data with limited reaction as the S&P/TSX closed 0.10% lower at 35,212.30.
USD/CAD edged 0.07% higher to 1.42 while WTI crude gained 0.86% to 69.14. Canada 2-year government yields slipped 0.50% to 2.24% and the 10-year yield rose 1.67% to 3.54%. Natural gas advanced 1.11% to 3.28 amid broader energy moves.
No Bank of Canada speakers appeared during the session.
The Day Ahead
Canada reports May trade balance at 4:30 ET with consensus near 2.7 billion, followed by June Ivey PMI at 6:00 ET where forecasts point to 59.1 from 58.2 previously. The high-impact PMI reading will test whether recent sentiment weakness extends into July. Markets will also monitor any follow-through from yesterday’s surveys ahead of next week’s employment data.
Energy prices remain sensitive to global supply signals that could influence CAD crosses. Traders price limited odds of near-term BoC moves given the 2.24% policy rate.
Other Economic Notes
Alberta and Ontario advanced proposals for a cross-Canada oil pipeline to reduce U.S. reliance, supporting longer-term energy infrastructure. National Bank of Canada projected a stronger loonie by 2027 despite near-term headwinds from softer sentiment.
Broader Canadian CPI expectations had risen before the U.S.-Iran agreement but have since moderated per BoC survey evidence. Housing and wholesale data from prior weeks continue to underpin a stable domestic backdrop around the 2.32% CPI level.
