Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Trade Surplus Beats as Ivey PMI Slips
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,272.60 | +0.17% |
| USD/CAD | 1.42 | +0.03% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | -0.55% |
| WTI Crude | 74.38 | +5.59% |
| Natural Gas | 3.32 | +1.53% |
| Gold | 4,059.70 | -2.06% |
| Brent Crude | 78.43 | +5.76% |
| Bitcoin | 62,094.32 | -1.90% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Business Outlook Survey | - | - | "" |
| BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations | - | - | "" |
| Trade Balance | 3,410m | 2,900m | 4,240m |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 58.20 | 59.10 | 56.20 |
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 3.542 (2026-05-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.192,3.381,3.234,3.056,3.483,3.542 | Short-term Rate %: 2.24 (2026-05-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.2007,3.314,5.015,2.993,2.251,2.24
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-07-10) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.60 | 6.60 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 88,000 | 10,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 154,000 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | -66,200 | - | 04:30 |
- Canada posted a record C$4.24B trade surplus in May, beating consensus by C$1.34B and supporting near-term growth views.
- Ivey PMI fell to 56.2 in June, missing forecasts and signaling cooling business activity ahead of July jobs data.
- Markets priced limited BoC easing through year-end, with the policy rate steady at 2.24% and CPI at 3.23% y/y.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada’s May trade balance surged to C$4.24 billion, exceeding the C$2.9 billion consensus and prior C$3.41 billion print on stronger exports. The Ivey PMI dropped to 56.2 versus 59.1 expected, marking the weakest reading in three months and highlighting softening domestic demand. The S&P/TSX rose 0.17% to 35,272.60, led by energy shares as WTI crude jumped 5.59% to $74.38.
USD/CAD edged 0.03% higher to 1.42 while the 2-year yield held at 2.24% and the 10-year yield climbed to 3.54%. BoC Business Outlook and Consumer Expectation surveys released with no numerical surprises, leaving markets focused on Friday’s labor report. Oil and natural gas gains offset modest equity breadth, keeping CAD crosses range-bound.
The Day Ahead
Friday’s July 10 employment report will feature the unemployment rate, expected to hold at 6.6%, alongside a consensus 10,000 employment gain. Full-time and part-time employment changes plus labor-force participation will also be released at 4:30 ET. Markets will parse the data for signals on wage pressures and hiring momentum after last month’s solid print.
No Bank of Canada speakers are scheduled, leaving the focus squarely on the labor figures and their implications for the July 30 rate decision. Wholesale trade and senior loan officer survey results may provide additional color on credit conditions.
Other Economic Notes
National Bank of Canada’s acquisition of Truvera Trust expands its Western Canada wealth platform and signals continued sector consolidation. RBC research maintains that policy will stay on hold through 2026, citing persistent inflation at 3.23% y/y and balanced risks. Higher oil prices have yet to translate into CAD strength, reflecting global USD demand and domestic growth concerns.
Government of Canada 10-year yields rose 1.67% on the day, steepening the curve and reinforcing expectations of steady rates.
Global Macro News
Brent crude climbed 5.76% alongside WTI on OPEC+ supply discipline and Middle East tensions, supporting Canadian energy exports. Natural gas advanced 1.53% on heat-driven demand in North America. <i>↓ p.2</i>
