Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Ivey PMI Misses as Trade Surplus Widens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,935.80 | -0.95% |
| USD/CAD | 1.42 | -0.26% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | -0.37% |
| WTI Crude | 73.73 | +0.29% |
| Natural Gas | 3.20 | -0.28% |
| Gold | 4,125.20 | +1.33% |
| Brent Crude | 78.41 | +0.50% |
| Bitcoin | 62,676.77 | +0.67% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Business Outlook Survey | - | - | "" |
| BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations | - | - | "" |
| Trade Balance | 3,410m | 2,900m | 4,240m |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 58.20 | 59.10 | 56.20 |
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment Rate (%): 6.6 (2026-05-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 7.1,5.1,5.8,6.6,6.9,6.6
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-07-10) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.60 | 6.60 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 88,000 | 10,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 154,000 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | -66,200 | - | 04:30 |
- Ivey PMI fell to 56.2, missing consensus and signaling softer business conditions.
- Trade balance surplus expanded to C$4.24 billion, exceeding forecasts on stronger exports.
- TSX declined 0.95% while CAD strengthened against USD amid higher oil prices.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada’s Ivey PMI dropped to 56.2 in June from 58.2, undershooting the 59.1 consensus and pointing to moderating activity in the services sector. The trade surplus reached C$4.24 billion in May, beating the C$2.9 billion expectation as export growth outpaced imports. Bank of Canada Business Outlook and Consumer Expectations surveys were released without numerical surprises.
The S&P/TSX fell 0.95% to 34,935.80, pressured by financials, while USD/CAD eased 0.26% to 1.42 on firmer commodity prices. Canada 2-year yields declined 0.50% to 2.24% and 10-year yields rose 1.67% to 3.54%. Gold advanced 1.33% to $4,125.20, providing support to resource equities.
WTI crude edged up 0.29% to $73.73.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the July 10 labour-force survey, where the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 6.6% and employment change is projected at +10,000. Full-time and part-time employment shifts, plus labour-force participation, will also be released at 4:30 ET. Stronger-than-expected hiring would reduce odds of near-term Bank of Canada easing and support the Canadian dollar.
No Bank of Canada speakers or policy announcements are scheduled. Wholesale trade data may offer additional colour on domestic demand trends.
Other Economic Notes
Canada’s economic rebound has created tension for policymakers balancing growth against still-elevated inflation. The Bank of Canada faces competing signals from resilient trade and softening PMI readings. Housing starts continued their multi-month decline, keeping affordability pressures in focus for households.
Energy producers reported above-plan output in Alberta oil sands, underpinning sector valuations. Ottawa’s rejection of proposed U.S. forced-labour tariffs removes one near-term trade risk for exporters.
Global Macro News
Surging oil prices lifted the Canadian dollar and energy-linked assets across North America. Brent crude rose 0.50% to $78.41, extending gains tied to OPEC+ discipline and Middle East supply concerns. <i>↓ p.2</i>
