Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Ivey PMI Slips as Canada Jobs Data Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,200.50 | +0.76% |
| USD/CAD | 1.42 | -0.07% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | +0.02% |
| WTI Crude | 72.53 | +0.62% |
| Natural Gas | 2.99 | -0.73% |
| Gold | 4,115.50 | -0.37% |
| Brent Crude | 76.90 | +0.79% |
| Bitcoin | 64,366.38 | +1.86% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Business Outlook Survey | - | - | "" |
| BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations | - | - | "" |
| Trade Balance | 3,410m | 2,900m | 4,240m |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 58.20 | 59.10 | 56.20 |
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 3.542 (2026-05-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.192,3.381,3.234,3.056,3.483,3.542
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.60 | 6.60 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 88,000 | 10,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 154,000 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | -66,200 | - | 04:30 |
- Trade balance beats at C$4.24B while Ivey PMI falls to 56.2
- TSX gains 0.76% with WTI crude up 0.62% to $72.53
- Focus shifts to June labor report for BoC policy clues
Yesterday's Recap
Canada posted a stronger-than-expected trade surplus of C$4.24 billion in May, exceeding the C$2.9 billion consensus. The Ivey PMI dropped to 56.2 from 58.2, missing forecasts of 59.1 and signaling softer business activity. The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations without notable surprises.
The S&P/TSX rose 0.76% to 35,200.50, supported by energy sector gains. USD/CAD eased 0.07% to 1.42 as oil prices climbed. The 2-year Government of Canada yield fell 0.50% to 2.24% while the 10-year yield rose 1.67% to 3.54%.
Natural gas declined 0.73% to $2.99 amid mixed commodity flows.
The Day Ahead
June labor market data headline the calendar with the unemployment rate, employment change, and participation rate all due at 8:30 ET. Consensus calls for the jobless rate to hold at 6.6% and net employment to rise by 10,000 after May’s 88,000 gain. Full-time and part-time employment changes will also be released, offering detail on labor quality.
No Bank of Canada speakers are scheduled. Markets will parse the prints for signs of cooling that could influence the July 30 rate decision.
Other Economic Notes
Canada’s economic rebound has created difficult trade-offs for the Bank of Canada between supporting growth and containing inflation. Bank equities outperformed the broader index, with Royal Bank and National Bank shares advancing. Housing starts data and oil-sands output increases point to resilient domestic supply conditions.
Extension of USMCA auto-rules talks removed near-term tariff risks for manufacturers. These developments reinforce expectations of steady policy through year-end.
Global Macro News
Rising oil prices lifted the Canadian dollar against the US dollar despite broader USD weakness. German trade data supported euro strength, pushing EUR/CAD 0.02% higher to 1.62. Bank of England comments on the need for higher rates to curb inflation contrasted with market expectations for BoC easing.
Egypt’s central bank held rates steady for a third meeting, highlighting divergent global policy paths. <i>↓ p.2</i>
