Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Set to Hold at 2.25% on Growth Rebound
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,305.30 | +0.30% |
| USD/CAD | 1.41 | -0.23% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.31% |
| WTI Crude | 73.76 | +3.29% |
| Natural Gas | 2.89 | -1.73% |
| Gold | 4,070.60 | -0.82% |
| Brent Crude | 78.49 | +3.26% |
| Bitcoin | 62,927.52 | -1.30% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Short-Term Interest Rate | Type: macro_line | 3M Rate (%): 2.292 (2026-05-01) | Range: 0.078–5.08 | Trend(6pt): 0.1775,3.76,4.947,2.842,2.272,2.292
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-07-15) | |||
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 05:45 |
| BoC Monetary Policy Report | - | - | 05:45 |
| BoC Press Conference | - | - | 06:30 |
| Thursday (2026-07-16) | |||
| Housing Starts Level | 261,400 | 259,000 | 04:15 |
- Bank of Canada expected to hold overnight rate at 2.25% on July 15 with fresh Monetary Policy Report
- Unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in June on modest job gains led by youth employment
- S&P/TSX rises 0.30% while CAD strengthens 0.23% versus USD as WTI crude jumps 3.29%
Yesterday's Recap
Canada reported an unemployment rate decline to 6.5% in June alongside modest employment gains that included 33,000 jobs added by youth. No economic data releases occurred on July 12. The S&P/TSX Composite advanced 0.30% to close at 35,305.30, led by energy and financial shares.
WTI crude rose 3.29% to 73.76 while Brent crude gained 3.26% to 78.49 on supply discipline signals. USD/CAD fell 0.23% to 1.41 as the Canadian dollar benefited from firmer oil prices and receding Fed hike expectations. Canada 2-year yields eased 0.50% to 2.24% while the 10-year yield rose 1.67% to 3.54%.
Housing market concerns persisted with reports that further Bank of Canada easing would provide limited relief to affordability pressures in major cities.
The Day Ahead
Markets focus on the July 15 Bank of Canada interest rate decision, Monetary Policy Report and press conference, with consensus pointing to a hold at 2.25%. The updated MPR will provide fresh staff projections on growth, inflation and the labor market that shape rate path expectations. Housing starts data due July 16 will offer an early read on residential construction momentum after recent softness.
Traders will parse Governor Macklem’s remarks for any shift in forward guidance on the timing of potential easing. CAD crosses and front-end yields are likely to react sharply to any deviation from the expected steady stance. No other high-impact Canadian releases appear before the weekend.
Other Economic Notes
Canada’s housing crisis has intensified with resale prices continuing to soften in Toronto and Vancouver despite earlier rate cuts. Economists note that further easing would do little to address structural supply shortages and regulatory constraints. June’s labor market improvement offers some offset to weak growth readings but remains insufficient to alter the Bank of Canada’s cautious stance.
Broader uncertainty around U.S.-Canada trade negotiations on dairy and autos adds to the wait-and-see posture among policymakers. Energy export revenues continue to provide a buffer for the current account amid volatile global commodity prices.
