Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Poised to Hold as Oil Lifts CAD
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,252.70 | -0.15% |
| USD/CAD | 1.41 | -0.35% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.33% |
| WTI Crude | 79.84 | +2.18% |
| Natural Gas | 2.88 | -0.76% |
| Gold | 4,035.40 | +0.96% |
| Brent Crude | 86.21 | +3.49% |
| Bitcoin | 62,784.47 | +0.88% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 3.542 (2026-05-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.192,3.381,3.234,3.056,3.483,3.542
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-07-15) | |||
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 05:45 |
| BoC Monetary Policy Report | - | - | 05:45 |
| BoC Press Conference | - | - | 06:30 |
| Thursday (2026-07-16) | |||
| Housing Starts Level | 261,400 | 259,000 | 04:15 |
- BoC expected to hold policy rate at 2.25% with MPR and press conference to follow
- WTI Crude jumps 2.18% to $79.84 while USD/CAD falls 0.35% to 1.41
- Canada 10Y yield rises to 3.54% as 2Y yield slips to 2.24%
Yesterday's Recap
Markets digested the absence of fresh Canadian data releases on July 13 while focusing on global oil dynamics. The S&P/TSX closed down 0.15% at 35,252.70 as energy gains failed to offset broader equity softness. USD/CAD declined 0.35% to 1.41 and EUR/CAD fell 0.33% to 1.61, reflecting CAD outperformance tied to higher crude prices.
WTI Crude rose 2.18% to $79.84 and Brent Crude gained 3.49% to $86.21 amid Middle East supply concerns. Natural Gas slipped 0.76% to $2.88 while Gold advanced 0.96% to $4,035.40. Canada 2Y yield dropped 0.50% to 2.24% and the 10Y yield climbed 1.67% to 3.54%.
June employment data showed modest national gains concentrated in Alberta, leaving unemployment slightly lower but providing little new signal ahead of the BoC decision.
The Day Ahead
Attention centers on the Bank of Canada’s July 15 interest rate decision, Monetary Policy Report and press conference, all carrying high market impact. Consensus points to an unchanged 2.25% policy rate, marking the sixth consecutive hold. The MPR will update growth and inflation projections following recent resilience in output.
Housing Starts for June are due July 16 and are expected to print near 259,000, down from 261,400. Markets will parse the press conference for any shift in forward guidance on the timing of future easing. No other high-impact Canadian releases appear on the immediate calendar.
Other Economic Notes
Recent June labor data indicated Alberta accounted for nearly half of national job gains, underscoring regional divergence in economic momentum. Oil-sands producers reached a carbon-capture agreement with Alberta and federal governments that could influence long-term energy investment. USMCA auto-rules talks concluded without major concessions, leaving trade uncertainty intact for export-oriented sectors.
CMHC housing data released earlier highlighted continued weakness in starts, reinforcing affordability pressures. These developments occur against a backdrop of elevated Canada CPI at 3.23% as of May, keeping inflation vigilance elevated.
