Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Holds as Inflation, Growth Diverge
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | nan | +nan% |
| USD/CAD | 1.41 | -0.57% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.26% |
| WTI Crude | 79.76 | +0.53% |
| Natural Gas | 2.90 | -0.10% |
| Gold | 4,036.00 | -0.62% |
| Brent Crude | 85.24 | +0.60% |
| Bitcoin | 64,656.78 | -0.46% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 3.542 (2026-05-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.192,3.381,3.234,3.056,3.483,3.542
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 05:45 |
| BoC Monetary Policy Report | - | - | 05:45 |
| BoC Press Conference | - | - | 06:30 |
| Thursday (2026-07-16) | |||
| Housing Starts Level | 261,400 | 258,000 | 04:15 |
- BoC set to hold policy rate at 2.24% with focus shifting to hike timing
- CAD edges higher while oil prices advance on Middle East supply risks
- Canada 10-year yield rises to 3.54% as markets price fewer cuts
Yesterday's Recap
Markets positioned ahead of the Bank of Canada decision with limited domestic data releases. USD/CAD fell 0.57% to 1.41 while EUR/CAD declined 0.26% to 1.61, reflecting modest CAD outperformance. Canada 2-year yields eased 0.50% to 2.24% and the 10-year yield climbed 1.67% to 3.54%, steepening the curve.
WTI crude rose 0.53% to 79.76 and Brent gained 0.60% to 85.24 amid Strait of Hormuz concerns. Natural gas slipped 0.10% to 2.90 and gold fell 0.62% to 4,036. The S&P/TSX showed no material net change as energy and financial sectors offset broader caution.
Traders reduced odds of near-term BoC easing following the latest inflation print at 3.23% year-over-year.
The Day Ahead
The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 05:45 ET, followed immediately by the Monetary Policy Report and a 06:30 ET press conference. Markets widely expect the committee to maintain the policy rate at 2.24% given the tension between cooling inflation pressures and subdued growth. Housing starts data scheduled for tomorrow at 04:15 ET carries medium impact and may influence views on residential demand.
The press conference will likely clarify the Governing Council’s assessment of trade uncertainties and the path for any future tightening. No other high-impact Canadian releases are due today. Attention will center on any shifts in forward guidance language within the MPR.
Other Economic Notes
Recent Canadian data continue to show resilience in energy output alongside softening housing metrics. Alberta production gains have supported export revenues even as national housing starts trend lower. Broader growth concerns stem from weak domestic demand indicators that contrast with still-elevated CPI at 3.23%.
Government of Canada bond markets have adjusted pricing to reflect a later start to any rate-hike cycle. Energy commodity strength provides a partial offset to softer non-energy activity. Policymakers must balance these cross-currents in the updated Monetary Policy Report projections.
