Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Holds at 2.25% as Growth Outlook Improves
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,416.20 | +0.27% |
| USD/CAD | 1.40 | -0.14% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.19% |
| WTI Crude | 79.37 | -0.29% |
| Natural Gas | 2.92 | -0.24% |
| Gold | 4,029.90 | -0.35% |
| Brent Crude | 84.56 | -0.46% |
| Bitcoin | 64,155.46 | -0.86% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| BoC Monetary Policy Report | - | - | - |
| BoC Press Conference | - | - | - |
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Percent: 6.6 (2026-05-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 7.1,5.1,5.8,6.6,6.9,6.6
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housing Starts Level | 261,400 | 258,000 | 04:15 |
- BoC holds policy rate at 2.25% and signals stronger H2 expansion in the Monetary Policy Report
- S&P/TSX rises 0.27% to 35,416.20 while USD/CAD falls 0.14% to 1.40
- Canada 2-year yield drops 0.50% to 2.24% as 10-year yield climbs 1.67% to 3.54%
Yesterday's Recap
The Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25% and released an updated Monetary Policy Report that highlighted renewed economic momentum. Officials noted the economy is expanding again and forecast firmer growth through the second half of the year. Markets responded with modest gains: the S&P/TSX added 0.27% while USD/CAD eased 0.14% to 1.40.
The 2-year Government of Canada yield fell 0.50% to 2.24%, whereas the 10-year yield rose 1.67% to 3.54%. Energy prices softened, with WTI crude declining 0.29% to $79.37 per barrel and natural gas dropping 0.24% to $2.92. Gold and Bitcoin also finished lower, reflecting a mixed risk tone after the decision.
No other Canadian data releases occurred on the day. The committee voted to hold without providing explicit forward guidance on future moves.
The Day Ahead
Housing starts for June are scheduled for release at 4:15 a.m. ET, with the consensus forecast at 258,000 units against a prior reading of 261,400. Traders will monitor the print for signs of residential momentum ahead of the next policy meeting.
No Bank of Canada speeches or additional tier-one releases are listed for the session. Overnight moves in oil and the Canadian dollar will set the tone for equity and fixed-income trading. Market participants continue to assess the implications of the Bank’s upgraded growth outlook.
Broader commodity weakness weighed on gold, which declined 0.35% to $4,029.90.
Other Economic Notes
Alberta oil-sands production rose in recent months, supporting energy equities despite softer crude prices. Housing affordability concerns persist after earlier weakness in starts, though lower short-term yields may provide some relief. Broader Canadian data continue to show gradual improvement in domestic demand, consistent with the Bank’s revised projections.
Government bond curves steepened modestly as longer-term yields responded to the improved growth narrative. Softer U.S. inflation data reduced near-term rate-hike expectations and weighed on the dollar, indirectly supporting CAD crosses.
