Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Canada's June CPI to Test Cooling Path
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,263.90 | -0.22% |
| USD/CAD | 1.40 | -0.07% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.18% |
| WTI Crude | 81.59 | -1.09% |
| Natural Gas | 2.86 | -1.92% |
| Gold | 4,026.60 | +0.35% |
| Brent Crude | 88.30 | +0.23% |
| Bitcoin | 64,844.81 | +0.24% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 3.42 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.192,3.381,3.234,3.056,3.518,3.42
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.20 | 2.90 | 04:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.20 | - | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1 | -0.20 | 04:30 |
| Thursday (2026-07-23) | |||
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 1.40 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | 0.50 | 1 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-07-24) | |||
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.30 | -0.20 | 04:30 |
- June inflation data due today with consensus pointing to 2.9% y/y cooling from 3.2%.
- S&P/TSX slips 0.22% while Canada 10-year yields fall 3.43% on easing bets.
- USD/CAD steadies near 1.40 as oil prices dip 1.09% to $81.59.
Yesterday's Recap
Markets digested a quiet session with no Canadian data releases. The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.22% to 35,263.90 amid modest profit-taking in energy names. Canada 2-year yields rose 1.00% to 2.27% while the 10-year yield dropped 3.43% to 3.42%, flattening the curve.
USD/CAD eased 0.07% to 1.40 as WTI crude declined 1.09% to $81.59. Natural gas fell 1.92% to $2.86 on milder weather forecasts. Gold advanced 0.35% to $4,026.60, providing some support to materials stocks.
Bitcoin gained 0.24% to $64,844.81 with limited spillover to Canadian assets. Housing-market stabilization signals from prior weeks continued to temper immediate growth concerns without re-igniting price pressures.
The Day Ahead
Statistics Canada will release June CPI figures at 4:30 ET, with the headline rate expected at 2.9% y/y and the month-over-month print at -0.2%. Core inflation data will accompany the release, though consensus is unavailable. Traders will scrutinize the prints for signs of sustained disinflation that could influence Bank of Canada timing.
No retail sales or housing figures are scheduled until Thursday. Markets will also monitor any follow-up commentary from senior Bank officials. Positioning ahead of the print has kept volumes light in CAD crosses.
The May CPI reading of 3.23% y/y remains the last verified benchmark against which today's outcome will be compared.
Other Economic Notes
Energy producers face margin pressure from softer crude prices despite stable natural gas demand. Housing market stabilization continues to reduce downside risks to growth without reigniting inflation concerns. Government of Canada bond issuance remains steady, supporting liquidity in the 2-year and 10-year sectors.
Broader commodity volatility has kept the TSX within a narrow range despite global equity gains. Fiscal support measures show limited impact on near-term inflation trajectories. Alberta oil-sands capex above guidance has sustained employment in the energy patch while softwood-lumber talks with the United States remain stalled.
