TSX Rises as Oil Slides Ahead of Trade Data

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
S&P/TSX	35,707.83	+1.37%
USD/CAD	1.40	+0.01%
EUR/CAD	1.62	+0.26%
WTI Crude	75.64	-5.85%
Natural Gas	2.66	-4.24%
Gold	4,144.60	+2.75%
Brent Crude	79.09	-5.59%
Bitcoin	63,916.66	+0.72%
Canada 2Y Govt Yield	2.27%	+1.00%
Canada 10Y Govt Yield	3.42%	-3.43%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
Trade Balance	4,240m	3,000m	04:30
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index	-	50.20	05:30

Friday (2026-08-07)
Unemployment Rate	6.50	6.50	04:30
Employment Change	18,200	15,000	04:30
Full-Time Employment Change	600	-	04:30
Labor Force Participation	65	-	04:30
Part-Time Employment Change	17,500	-	04:30
Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted	56.20	55.50	06:00

Trade Balance and Manufacturing PMI due today with markets focused on export resilience
S&P/TSX rises 1.37% while WTI Crude drops 5.85% on Hormuz reopening hopes
Canada 10Y yield falls 3.43% to 3.42% as BoC policy rate holds at 2.27%

Yesterday's Recap

Canadian equity markets posted solid gains with the S&P/TSX closing at 35,707.83, up 1.37 percent, supported by strength in materials and financials. Energy names lagged as WTI Crude settled at 75.64 dollars per barrel, down 5.85 percent, and Brent Crude fell 5.59 percent to 79.09 dollars. The Canadian dollar was little changed against the US dollar at 1.40 while EUR/CAD rose 0.26 percent to 1.62.

Government bond yields showed divergence, with the 2-year yield edging up 1 basis point to 2.27 percent and the 10-year yield declining 3.43 percent to 3.42 percent. Natural gas prices dropped 4.24 percent to 2.66 dollars amid shifting weather forecasts. Gold advanced 2.75 percent to 4,144.60 dollars per ounce, providing a partial offset to energy weakness.

Bitcoin gained 0.72 percent to 63,916.66 dollars with limited spillover to broader risk assets.

The Day Ahead

Attention centers on the June Trade Balance release at 4:30 ET, where the surplus is expected to narrow to 3.0 billion dollars from 4.24 billion previously. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI follows at 5:30 ET with consensus at 50.2, offering an early read on July factory conditions. Markets will assess whether export momentum can offset softening domestic demand signals.

Friday’s labour force report, featuring the unemployment rate and employment change, will provide the next high-impact labour market update. No Bank of Canada speakers are scheduled, leaving data and global oil dynamics to drive price action in CAD crosses and front-end yields.

Other Economic Notes

Canada’s energy sector faces pressure from the sharp drop in crude prices linked to potential Strait of Hormuz reopening, which could weigh on near-term fiscal revenues. Recent data showing Canadians spent 3.3 billion dollars less on US travel in 2025 highlights shifting consumption patterns that may support domestic tourism and services. Housing affordability concerns persist following earlier weak starts prints, keeping attention on mortgage rate sensitivity to any further BoC easing.

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Broader commodity volatility, including natural gas declines, adds uncertainty to Alberta and Saskatchewan growth outlooks. Steel tariff signals from Ottawa could provide modest support to domestic metals producers amid global trade tensions.

Global Macro News

Oil prices fell sharply after US officials indicated progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns tied to the Iran situation. Saudi Aramco reported a 33 percent jump in second-quarter profits, reflecting higher realized prices during the period of restricted shipments. BP’s profit more than doubled, prompting criticism from President Trump over industry margins.

Treasury yields slid in tandem with lower oil, reflecting reduced inflation concerns across G10 markets. Federal Reserve speakers including Philip Jefferson and Michelle Bowman discussed navigating shocks and modernizing regulation, with limited direct implications for Canadian policy. European crop damage from heat and drought is expected to lift olive oil and food prices, adding a minor global inflation tailwind.

UN experts urged Canada to protect a Sikh activist from reported transnational threats, though the issue remains outside core macro channels.

BoC Watch

Governor Tiff Macklem’s recent Monetary Policy Report opening statement reinforced the Bank’s data-dependent approach with the policy rate steady at 2.27 percent. CPI inflation stands at 2.80 percent year-over-year, leaving room for further moderation before any additional easing. Markets continue to monitor forward guidance for signs that cooling growth will prompt another cut later this year.

Quantitative tightening remains on schedule, gradually reducing the balance sheet without disrupting front-end yields. The committee’s communications emphasize balanced risks between persistent services inflation and weakening labour demand. Recent yield compression in the 10-year sector reflects expectations that the Bank will maintain an accommodative stance if trade and PMI prints disappoint.

CAD sensitivity to global oil moves adds an external layer to domestic policy transmission.

Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)