Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Trade Surplus Beats, PMI Climbs to 53.5
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 36,146.40 | +0.96% |
| USD/CAD | 1.40 | -0.47% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | -0.41% |
| WTI Crude | 75.88 | +0.88% |
| Natural Gas | 2.66 | -0.97% |
| Gold | 4,323.60 | +1.83% |
| Brent Crude | 80.29 | +1.06% |
| Bitcoin | 64,577.33 | -0.03% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 3,700m | 3,000m | 3,860m |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 53 | 50.20 | 53.50 |
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment Rate (%): 6.5 (2026-06-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 7,5,5.7,6.8,6.6,6.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-08-07) | |||
| Unemployment Rate | 6.50 | 6.50 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 18,200 | 15,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 600 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 17,500 | - | 04:30 |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 56.20 | 55.50 | 06:00 |
- Trade balance widens to 3.86B CAD, beating consensus
- Manufacturing PMI rises to 53.5, signaling expansion
- TSX gains 0.96%, USD/CAD falls to 1.40
Yesterday's Recap
Canada posted a larger trade surplus of 3.86 billion Canadian dollars, exceeding the 3 billion consensus forecast and the prior 3.7 billion reading. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index advanced to 53.5 from 53 previously, outpacing the 50.2 expectation and confirming ongoing expansion in the sector. Equity markets reacted positively as the S&P/TSX Composite climbed 0.96 percent to 36,146.40, supported by energy and broader commodity strength.
The Canadian dollar strengthened, driving USD/CAD down 0.47 percent to 1.40 while EUR/CAD eased 0.41 percent to 1.62. WTI Crude rose 0.88 percent to 75.88 and Brent Crude gained 1.06 percent to 80.29, lifting energy weights on the index. The 10-year Government of Canada yield declined 3.43 percent to 3.42 percent amid contained inflation signals, while the 2-year yield rose 1.00 percent to 2.27 percent.
Natural gas prices slipped 0.97 percent to 2.66 amid mixed commodity moves, and gold advanced 1.83 percent to 4,323.60.
The Day Ahead
Markets focus on Canada's July labor force survey due August 7, featuring the unemployment rate and employment change. Consensus calls for the unemployment rate to remain at 6.5 percent and employment to rise by 15,000, with full-time employment change, part-time employment change, and labor force participation also due. The Ivey PMI seasonally adjusted is expected at 55.5, down from 56.2.
These high-impact prints will shape near-term Bank of Canada expectations and influence CAD volatility. No senior official speeches are scheduled for the session.
Other Economic Notes
Canada CPI stood at 2.80 percent year-over-year as of June, reflecting contained price pressures. The Bank of Canada policy rate remains at 2.25 percent. Stronger energy cash flows aided TSX performance while housing starts data added to affordability concerns.
Broader domestic themes center on steady commodity support for exports and cautious fiscal signals ahead of trade talks. Alberta producers reported firmer Q2 cash flow, bolstering index weights, and Ottawa's new US-Canada softwood-lumber discussions were viewed as neutral for near-term flows.
