Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Canada CPI Eyed as Gas Prices Lift Inflation
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 36,730.30 | -0.08% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | -0.46% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.04% |
| WTI Crude | 82.63 | +0.28% |
| Natural Gas | 2.65 | -3.00% |
| Gold | 4,460.70 | +1.83% |
| Brent Crude | 89.12 | +0.68% |
| Bitcoin | 63,620.60 | +1.28% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Policy Rate vs 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 2.267 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.187,3.741,5.026,2.841,2.245,2.267 | 10Y Yield %: 3.42 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.263–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.263,3.166,3.346,3.01,3.542,3.42
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.80 | 2.90 | 08:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.10 | - | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.40 | 0.40 | 08:30 |
| Tuesday (2026-08-18) | |||
| Housing Starts Level | 239,000 | 248,000 | 08:15 |
| Thursday (2026-08-20) | |||
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.10 | - | 08:30 |
| Friday (2026-08-21) | |||
| Retail Sales excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 1.20 | 0 | 08:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | 1 | 0.40 | 08:30 |
- July CPI release today expected to show 2.9% YoY rise driven by gasoline.
- TSX holds near record while CAD strengthens 0.46% against USD.
- BoC maintains 2.25% policy rate with markets pricing gradual easing.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets closed mixed on August 16 with the S&P/TSX ending at 36,730.30, down 0.08%. The Canadian dollar gained sharply, pushing USD/CAD to 1.39 after a 0.46% decline, while EUR/CAD eased 0.04% to 1.61. Government bond yields diverged as the 2-year rose 1 basis point to 2.27% while the 10-year fell 3.43% to 3.42%.
Energy prices provided support with WTI crude advancing 0.28% to 82.63 and Brent crude rising 0.68% to 89.12. Gold climbed 1.83% to 4,460.70 amid safe-haven demand. Natural gas dropped 3.00% to 2.65 on milder weather forecasts.
Bitcoin rose 1.28% to 63,620.60. No major Canadian data prints occurred, leaving price action driven by positioning ahead of the July inflation release and global oil dynamics.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the July CPI report scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, with the headline rate expected at 2.9% year-over-year against the prior 2.8%. Core inflation and the month-over-month change will also be released at the same time.
Housing starts data follows tomorrow at 8:15 a.m., with consensus pointing to a rebound to 248,000 annualized units. Later in the week, retail sales excluding autos and the Senior Loan Officer Survey will provide further insight into consumer spending and credit conditions. The inflation print carries the highest market impact given its direct bearing on Bank of Canada timing.
Other Economic Notes
Higher gasoline prices are expected to push the July inflation reading back toward 3%, reversing recent moderation. Core measures remain soft, supporting views that underlying price pressures continue to ease despite the headline uptick. Housing affordability concerns persist as starts data have consistently missed expectations in recent months.
Energy producers face flat capital expenditure plans for 2027 amid lower realized prices, limiting sector investment. Tariff uncertainty with the United States continues to weigh on export-oriented manufacturing sentiment.
