Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CAD Weakens as Trade War Escalates
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 36,957.60 | +0.66% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | +0.20% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | +0.17% |
| WTI Crude | 80.28 | -2.53% |
| Natural Gas | 2.89 | +4.40% |
| Gold | 4,675.60 | +0.81% |
| Brent Crude | 85.29 | -3.71% |
| Bitcoin | 78,390.68 | -0.22% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Exports Value | Type: macro_line | Exports (CAD mn): 23.73 (2026-06-01) | Range: -16.08–37.85 | Trend(6pt): 18.32,2.889,-7.724,4.603,23.24,23.73
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-08-27) | |||
| Current Account Balance | -7,200m | -2,000m | 08:30 |
| Friday (2026-08-28) | |||
| GDP Growth Annualized | -0.10 | 3.40 | 08:30 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0 | - | 08:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.20 | 08:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month Preliminary | - | - | 08:30 |
| Tuesday (2026-09-01) | |||
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.50 | - | 09:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-09-02) | |||
- TSX rose 0.66% to 36,957.60 while USD/CAD climbed to 1.39 amid tariff threats.
- Canada 10Y yield fell 3.43% to 3.42% as 2Y yield edged up to 2.27%.
- Markets await Current Account Balance tomorrow and GDP release on Friday.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets showed mixed moves with no domestic data releases. The S&P/TSX advanced 0.66% to close at 36,957.60, supported by gains in natural gas which rose 4.40% to 2.89. USD/CAD increased 0.20% to 1.39 while EUR/CAD gained 0.17% to 1.62.
WTI crude fell 2.53% to 80.28 and Brent dropped 3.71% to 85.29. Gold advanced 0.81% to 4,675.60. Canada 2Y government yield rose 1.00% to 2.27% whereas the 10Y yield declined 3.43% to 3.42%.
Bitcoin slipped 0.22% to 78,390.68. Escalating bilateral tensions weighed on sentiment even as equity and commodity moves remained contained ahead of the weekend.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to the Current Account Balance release at 08:30 ET tomorrow, with consensus at -2.0 billion following the prior -7.2 billion print. Friday brings high-impact GDP data including annualized growth expected at 3.4% after last quarter’s -0.1% contraction, alongside month-over-month figures. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on September 1 will provide an early read on September activity.
Markets will then focus on the Bank of Canada interest rate decision and Monetary Policy Report on September 2 at 09:45 ET, followed by the press conference at 10:30 ET. These events will shape expectations for the policy rate currently at 2.25%. Traders will also monitor any updates from the Business Outlook Survey and Market Participants Survey for clues on business and financial conditions.
Other Economic Notes
Escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions dominate the outlook as President Trump signals potential new tariffs on Canadian goods. Retaliatory measures from Ottawa targeting roughly 20 billion dollars of U.S. imports have already disrupted supply chains, with paper products facing sharp price increases.
CPI inflation stands at 3.03% year-over-year, keeping the Bank of Canada cautious despite the policy rate at 2.25%. Energy markets remain volatile, with oil prices sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz and broader sanctions dynamics. These cross-border frictions add downside risks to Canadian growth forecasts heading into the September policy meeting.
Mortgage and refinance rates moved lower across the board, providing modest relief to households amid the uncertainty.
