Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Q2 Rebound Reinforces BoC Hold Stance
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 36,553.90 | -0.76% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | -0.17% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.19% |
| WTI Crude | 86.53 | +3.75% |
| Natural Gas | 2.92 | +1.00% |
| Gold | 4,514.00 | +0.80% |
| Brent Crude | 88.88 | -0.48% |
| Bitcoin | 78,415.20 | +0.75% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment %: 6.4 (2026-07-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 7,5,5.7,6.8,6.6,6.4
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-09-01) | |||
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.50 | - | 05:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-09-02) | |||
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 05:45 |
| Press Conference by BoC | - | - | 06:30 |
| Thursday (2026-09-03) | |||
| Trade Balance | 3,860m | 3,600m | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-09-04) | |||
| Unemployment Rate | 6.40 | 6.40 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 75,100 | 15,000 | 04:30 |
- Canada posted 3.4% Q2 GDP growth, exceeding BoC forecasts and reinforcing expectations for a steady 2.25% policy rate.
- TSX fell 0.76% while WTI crude rose 3.75% to $86.53 amid energy price volatility and trade tensions.
- Markets price limited BoC easing ahead of Wednesday’s decision as CPI holds at 3.03% YoY.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada’s second-quarter GDP expanded 3.4%, outpacing Bank of Canada projections and prompting upward revisions to first-quarter figures. The print highlighted resilience in domestic demand despite escalating US-Canada tariff disputes. Equity markets closed lower, with the S&P/TSX declining 0.76% to 36,553.90 as investors positioned ahead of the September 2 rate decision.
The Canadian dollar strengthened modestly, pushing USD/CAD down 0.17% to 1.39. Government bond yields showed mixed moves, with the 2-year rising 1 basis point to 2.27% while the 10-year fell 3.43% to 3.42%. Energy prices supported the resource-heavy index, as WTI crude gained 3.75% to $86.53 and natural gas added 1.00% to $2.92.
No major data releases occurred on August 30, leaving the GDP release and trade headlines as the dominant drivers. Gold rose 0.80% to 4,514.00 and Bitcoin gained 0.75% to 78,415.20, reflecting selective risk appetite.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 5:30 ET, expected to show continued expansion in factory activity. The Bank of Canada will announce its interest-rate decision at 5:45 ET on September 2, with markets fully pricing a hold at 2.25%. A press conference follows at 6:30 ET, where Governor Macklem is likely to stress data dependence amid trade uncertainty.
Thursday brings the July trade balance, forecast at C$3.6 billion, while Friday’s labour-force survey will test whether employment growth slows from July’s 75,100 gain. The Ivey PMI at 6:00 ET on Friday offers a timely read on business sentiment ahead of the next policy meeting. EUR/CAD eased 0.19% to 1.61, tracking broader dollar moves.
Other Economic Notes
Renewed US tariffs on Canadian goods have prompted Ottawa to impose counter-measures and a C$7.5 billion support package for affected sectors. The Q2 GDP beat reduces immediate pressure on the Bank of Canada to ease, even as trade frictions cloud the outlook for export-oriented industries. Housing data remain mixed, with starts rising but resale prices flat, limiting any additional inflationary impulse.
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