Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Holds at 2.25% as Tariffs Cloud Outlook
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 36,270.50 | -1.53% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | -0.14% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.09% |
| WTI Crude | 87.63 | +2.18% |
| Natural Gas | 2.89 | -1.47% |
| Gold | 4,429.40 | -0.04% |
| Brent Crude | 91.95 | +1.61% |
| Bitcoin | 78,149.11 | -0.51% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment rate %: 6.4 (2026-07-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 6.5,5,5.9,6.9,6.5,6.4
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.50 | - | 05:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-09-02) | |||
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 05:45 |
| Press Conference by BoC | - | - | 06:30 |
| Thursday (2026-09-03) | |||
| Trade Balance | 3,860m | 3,600m | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-09-04) | |||
| Unemployment Rate | 6.40 | 6.40 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 75,100 | 15,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 38,600 | - | 04:30 |
- Bank of Canada set to hold policy rate at 2.25% tomorrow amid US trade tensions
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI due today while August jobs data follow on Friday
- TSX drops 1.53% as 10-year yields fall 3.43% on growth concerns
Yesterday's Recap
Markets priced a steady Bank of Canada outcome ahead of the September 2 decision. The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.53% to 36,270.50 while USD/CAD eased 0.14% to 1.39 on firmer oil prices. WTI Crude rose 2.18% to 87.63 and Brent gained 1.61% to 91.95 as Middle East supply risks supported energy.
Canada 2-year yields edged up 1.00% to 2.27% while the 10-year yield dropped 3.43% to 3.42%. Gold held near 4,429.40 with limited movement. No Canadian data prints occurred on August 31, leaving the focus on tariff headlines and positioning for the rate decision.
Canada CPI YoY stood at 3.03% as of July 31, keeping inflation contained.
The Day Ahead
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August prints at 5:30 ET today with medium impact. Markets then turn to the Bank of Canada interest rate decision and press conference on September 2, both carrying high impact and consensus for a 2.25% hold. Trade balance data follow on September 3 while the August labour force survey arrives on September 4, featuring unemployment rate, employment change, and Ivey PMI releases.
The jobs print will shape October pricing and CAD volatility. No senior Bank of Canada speakers are scheduled before the decision.
Other Economic Notes
US tariffs continue to raise input costs for Canadian exporters according to KPMG Canada analysis. Housing starts data showed further weakness, extending pressure on longer-term yields. Energy producers reported solid cash-flow results that supported the TSX energy sector despite broader equity declines.
Ottawa maintained counter-tariffs and a C$7.5 billion support package to offset trade shocks. These measures keep fiscal policy active while monetary policy stays on hold.
Global Macro News
Euro zone inflation climbed back above 3%, raising the prospect of ECB rate hikes in September as Iran-related energy costs rise. Oil prices advanced on renewed Middle East supply disruption fears, lifting Canadian energy exports. The Canadian dollar recovered from recent lows against the USD as oil firmed ahead of the BoC meeting.
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